Duke handled business in its first-round game against Vermont, but the Blue Devils didn’t look great.
Despite an excellent start to the game, the Devils finished with only 64 points on .92 PPP.
Vermont cut the lead to six midway through the second half, but the Catamounts couldn’t hit the broad side of a covered bridge down the stretch.
So, I would be shocked if Duke turned around and dominated James Madison, which obliterated Wisconsin in the first round.
The Dukes match up well with Duke, and the spread is far too high.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
| James Madison | +7.5 (-115) | +245 | o148.5 (-110) |
| Duke | -7.5 (-105) | -310 | u148.5 (-110) |
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
(5:15 p.m. ET, CBS)
Duke’s entire offense is built around Kyle Filipowski in the screen-and-roll game.
While Vermont’s Ileri Ayo-Faleye essentially shut down Filipowski, he still dished out some key assists off the short roll, and Duke hit big 3s in the second half of their first-round victory.
But the Catamounts’ ball-screen coverage defense is sketchy, so beating them on those sets was easy.
It won’t be as easy against James Madison.
The Dukes rank in the top 10 nationally in pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP allowed (.61) and top 80 in roll-man PPP allowed (.94).
Duke should struggle to initiate the screen-heavy offense against TJ Bickerstaff and Julien Wooden (both .43 roll-man PPP allowed, 92nd percentile).
On the other end of the court, James Madison runs a spread pick-and-roll offense, leveraging the elite, versatile playmaking of Edwards and Bickerstaff to either score or hit rim-running cutters.
Duke’s ball-screen coverage metrics are good but not elite. And I think back-door cutters will shred the Devils.
James Madison ranks in the top 20 nationally in cutting points per game (11), while Duke ranks sub-250th in cutting PPP allowed (1.22).
Vermont generated plenty of easy offense with cutters in the first-round game, scoring 15 on 11 cuts (1.36 PPP).
James Madison is a much better, more athletic cut-based offense, and I think Duke’s rotations fail to keep up.
Ultimately, James Madison looked impressive against Wisconsin on Friday, while Duke looked subpar against Vermont.
Given the Dukes’ solid schematic advantages against Duke, I’m ready to back James Madison as a two-possession dog in the second round.
James Madison +7.5 | Play to +6