Less than a week after getting Errol Spence Jr. vs. Terence Crawford, the fighting world gets another treat with Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz.
These fights happening in back-to-back weeks give us an interesting contrast.
Spence-Crawford was a battle between the two best welterweight boxers in the world, giving us a long-desired answer to the question of who’s the best.
Paul-Diaz is a behind-the-dumpster scrap between an influencer turned boxer and an MMA superstar making his boxing debut.
The fight should generate plenty of interest, especially from the betting public.
So, we’re here to provide our prediction, pick and analysis on the weekend’s top fight.
The biggest question entering this fight is: Can the 38-year-old Diaz keep up with a fighter 12 years younger?
Diaz has always been a tough, well-conditioned fighter with excellent cardio.
But he’s fighting 15 pounds over his usual weight (185 instead of 170) at an advanced age (38), and preparing for a boxing match is much different than preparing for an MMA match.
Diaz has 34 career fights under his belt.
That’s a lot of miles.
Paul is much younger, stronger, and bigger.
He’s also advancing well for a boxer at this career stage, pairing an above-average inside jab with a big right hook.
He’s in good enough shape to carry his power late in fights and finishes nicely (four KOs in six victories).
Given all this information, Vegas oddsmakers are convinced Diaz doesn’t have a chance – Paul is nearly a 4-to-1 favorite on the ML.
I think Paul wins this fight, but I’m not laying $400 to win $100 on a cross-sport, cross-cultural pay-per-view event.
So, we’ll have to get creative to coax some betting value out of this fight.
Paul will land punches, and I think Diaz can them on the chin. Diaz is one of the toughest MMA fighters of our generation, and he’s experienced enough to weather heavy storms.
Ultimately, Diaz will stand firm, but Paul is an experienced boxer with too many physical advantages, and I’m betting that’ll play out in the cards.
Paul by Decision is currently listed at +350 on BetMGM Sportsbook.
Those are juicy odds in what should be a 10-round scrap between two well-conditioned boxers.
Jake Paul by Decision (+350) at BetMGM Sportsbook