Week 18 is a different animal.
Though a few games feature two teams at full strength with their eyes on the playoffs, there are many more that lack stakes and offer more questions than answers.
But these games have point spreads and that makes everything that much more compelling.
“It’s kind of like booking the preseason. You really don’t know what’s going to happen,” John Murray told Only Players. “But we’ve been doing it for the last month with the college bowl games outside of the playoffs. It’s similar.”
Many sportsbooks lower the betting limits for certain Week 18 games, given the chance that bettors may have certain information unavailable to the general public.
“This Sunday is nothing but a headache,” Murray said.
As for the Colts hosting the Jaguars, this one seemingly comes down to overall mindset.
Indy blew its playoff chances last week with a loss to the Giants, who were riding a 10-game losing streak.
I am backing the Jags +3.5 because the Colts look like a hot mess.
Fans and media members are blasting the organization, and the defense has stunk all season.
Sometimes that can galvanize a locker room, but more often than not it reflects a team coming apart at the seams.
Nevertheless, the 4-12 Jags aren’t exactly a bastion of stability and competency, but they have shown signs of life over the past month.
Jacksonville is 2-2 in its past four games and seemingly playing hard with backup quarterback Mac Jones leading the way.
Plus, much like with the preseason and unimportant bowl games, the key numbers change for these types of Week 18 matchups.
Coaches are more likely to go for 2-point conversions and take chances.
Thus, every half point matters, so I feel like 3.5 is solid value.
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.