Very little about this Mets season has gone according to plan. So it may be best not to try to overanalyze what’s happening lately, and just sit back and enjoy the recent ride on the 7 train (express preferred).
It’s a ride that’s improbably taken them from unforeseen depths straight into a playoff position in, oh, about a New York minute.
Without getting too technical, their current and crazy five-game winning streak, beyond the great work of both the “baby Mets” (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and, especially lately, Francisco Alvarez) and the most mature Mets (Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer), includes a great deal of mojo, and maybe a little magic, as well.
In some kind of order of wackiness (from most wacky to least), here’s what’s transpired.
• All five of the Mets’ wins have been by one run, which ties for the longest such streak in franchise history, all the more remarkable considering they are missing the best closer in the game.
• In all five wins, the Mets came from behind, needing the kind of heroics that seemed anathema to a team that’s struggled so much with runners in scoring position.
• The streak came almost exactly on the heels of a stretch of games so poor it is almost unmentionable — a 4-9 record against the likes of the Tigers, Reds, Rockies and Reds.
It’s a streak so bizarre, one high-ranking Mets person wondered aloud to me Monday whether it was “sustainable.” In a word (or two), I’d say probably not.
It’s no surprise why folks at Fangraphs aren’t suitably impressed yet. The Mets are seen there as having a 4.3 percent chance to win the World Series, which is a long way from the 20 percent chance given their main nemesis and World Series-favored Atlanta Braves. Thankfully, it’s also a long way from less than a week ago when they’d lost 10 of 14 and seemed buried in a malaise from which they wouldn’t soon arise — certainly not this soon. Back then, their chances looked close to zero.
It’s understandable why mathematicians still don’t love the Mets, who tote a negative-14 run differential into the North Side of Chicago, where they will face the Cubs, who are doing the opposite (they’ve lost their last eight one-run games and possess a losing record with a positive run differential).
The Mets, meantime, are doing it with mirrors despite having an MLB record $377 million payroll. Some of their stats are beyond belief. Opponents scored first 13 straight games going into the opener of Sunday’s doubleheader and have outscored the Mets 42-10 in the first inning, a figure so bad I can assume it is worse than the Triple A’s without even looking it up.
Things certainly haven’t proceeded to plan for the Mets, who are built around a strong starting rotation led by the two aforementioned future Hall of Famers and a lineup top so talented and versatile you’d expect them to routinely grab healthy leads and surely outscore their opponents early.
The Mets, who entered Monday tied with the surprise Pirates for the final two playoff positions, certainly haven’t played like world beaters. But there are two big reasons to believe they are better than their record: 1) the baby Mets, who just got here and 2) the mature Mets, who just got healthy and in one case eligible.
Not to be callous, but Scherzer seems to have extricated himself from most of his sticky situations, and looks like his old self. Verlander, whose teres major injury was more annoying than major it turns out, appeared like the guy who led the majors in ERA last year in shutting down the Guardians on Sunday to ensure the Mets’ fifth straight win and lower to 2.61 the starters’ ERA during the streak.
Meantime, the kids are more than all right. Baty and Vientos brought life to a team that needed it. And while Alvarez was struggling in the minors, he’s risen with his promotion, outdoing all expectations defensively while starting to tear it up at bat as soon as the calendar flipped to May. According to SNY, over the past 15 days he leads all catchers in home runs, RBIs, extra-base hits and OPS.
The Mets will have an interesting decision when Tomas Nido and starter Omar Narvaez return (Nido recently began playing rehab games and Narvaez isn’t too far behind), but the way Alvarez is playing makes it hard to remove him from the lineup anytime soon. The Mets’ lineup needs punch, and after cleanup man Pete Alonzo, Alvarez is providing the most power lately.
If anything, maybe they should add yet another prospect, Ronny Mauricio, to the mix. Like Baty and Vientos before him, he’s dominating the International League, with a .991 OPS, nine stolen bases and seven home runs.
When I proposed that idea recently to Billy Eppler, the always-verbose GM responded, “We’ll see.”
Actually, it’s probably a smart idea not to make any bold statements for a team that’s done nothing but confound the critics and buck every expectation.