The New York Islanders have found a way.
After being left for dead around Valentine’s Day, the Isles have fought back into a playoff spot and will enter Tuesday night in the first Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference.
The Minnesota Wild are in a similar spot. The Wild are in third place in the Central Division, but they’re just a point ahead of Winnipeg, two points in front of Seattle, and six better than Calgary. Everything is on the line for both squads.
The Wild are a -142 favorite on Tuesday night, but the moneyline isn’t the story for this one.
(8 p.m. ET., ESPN+)
At the time of writing, the Over/Under for this contest sits at 5.5, but the under is juiced to -140 at most sportsbooks. That means we could get our first contest with a total set at five goals for the entire season. That’s right, there hasn’t been a game that closed at five all season, per Action Labs, and there were only two in all of 2021-22. And wouldn’t you know it, both of those tilts involved the Islanders?
It makes a ton of sense why this Over/Under is crashing into uncharted territory. The two likely goaltenders, Ilya Sorokin and Filip Gustavsson have been among the best in the NHL this season, and both teams have played a ton of low-scoring contests of late.
Nine of the last 14 games involving the Isles (including three of their last four) have featured five goals or fewer. And that’s nothing compared to Minnesota. Twelve of Minnesota’s last 14 contests have gone under 5.5 goals.
In the current NHL, where scoring is up, and big comebacks seemingly happen every night, the Islanders and Wild are outliers. Both teams have solid scoring options in their top six, but their depth players aren’t going to light it up.
Considering the make-up of these rosters, you have a pretty good idea of the game plan for both teams. Go out there and try to grind your way to two points.
The Islanders have done a pretty decent job of that lately, which is impressive, considering they’re still without their best playmaker, Mat Barzal. For an offensively-challenged team, losing a player like Barzal could be the final nail in their coffin, but the Islanders have won three of four since the 25-year-old got hurt.
It’s pretty clear how the betting market thinks this game will play out. These are two grinding teams, and a blowout seems rather unlikely. That should keep the possibility of overtime in play for the whole night, which puts some value on backing the 60-minute tie at +300.
60-minute tie (+300, FanDuel)