The New York Islanders needed every second of their 82-game schedule to get into the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but that’s now in the past.
All that matters now is that the Isles are in the dance and, as luck would have it, they avoided a nightmare Round 1 matchup against the historically-good Boston Bruins.
Instead, the Islanders will be trendy +175 underdogs in a best-of-seven series against the Carolina Hurricanes.
The Canes won the Metropolitan Division and had the second-best record in the NHL, but there are still plenty of people who are skeptical of this team’s ceiling. Are the skeptics warranted?
Like every middle-of-the-pack team, the Islanders have plenty of flaws.
The Isles don’t generate a lot of offense, they have a terrible power play and their style of play makes it very hard for them to get back into games if they fall behind.
In the wrong matchup, the Isles could end up being a doormat. But against the right opposition, the Islanders are a live underdog. And it all starts in goal.
The first and most important thing to note in this series is the Islanders’ goaltending advantage. Ilya Sorokin is perhaps the best goalie in the world and provides the Islanders with a path to success on his own.
Sorokin is good enough to steal a series from any opponent, but his chances of doing so increase when his opposition is inconsistent at best.
Carolina finished with the 12th-best save percentage in the NHL, but because of injuries and up-and-down form, neither Frederik Andersen nor Antti Raanta were ever really able to seize the opportunity and establish themselves as the true No. 1 option.
Raanta posted the better numbers with a .910 SV% and a +5.5 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), but Andersen played more and has the pedigree of being a No. 1 goalie in his career.
The wild card here is Pyotr Kochetkov. The rookie netminder posted stronger numbers than both Andersen and Raanta, but head coach Rod Brind’Amour said Kochetkov won’t dress in Game 1. It’ll either be Andersen or Raanta in goal.
Whoever Brind’Amour taps for the curtain-raiser will have very little margin for error going against Sorokin.
The 27-year-old Russian finished the season with a .924 SV% and a league-leading +51.4 GSAx (per Evolving-Hockey) in 62 appearances.
Barring an unforeseen dip in form, Sorokin figures to give the Isles a legitimate chance to win, especially going up against two goalies who can run and cold.
Adding further worry to this matchup for the Hurricanes is their current form. Carolina looked like it would cruise to the division title in March, but the team was dealt a significant blow when Andrei Svechnikov tore his ACL on March 11.
For a club that doesn’t lacks scoring punch, losing its most consistent scorer is a massive deal. The Hurricanes are just 9-8-2 with a -2 goal difference since Svechnikov went down.
The good news for Carolina is that it isn’t going up against a team that has a habit of lighting the lamp.
While the Islanders were not terrible offensively at 5-on-5, their offensive output was inconsistent all season and their power play finished second-to-last.
That said, the Islanders were missing Mat Barzal for their last 23 games and still managed to go 14-7-2 down the stretch, and were 17-9-4 since trading for Bo Horvat right before the trade deadline.
Horvat and Barzal looked dangerous in the six games they got to play together, so perhaps getting Barzal back into the lineup (he’s playing in Game 1) and playing consistently with Horvat will provide the offensive spark this team has been searching for over the past two seasons.
With Sorokin in net and Barzal back in the lineup, the Islanders are a live underdog at these prices.
The Isles may not be the better team when you look at their overall body of work compared to Carolina’s, but the truth is that both of these teams are in a very different place than they were a couple of months ago.
Bet the Isles to make some noise in Game 1 and in this series.
Islanders to win Game 1 (+150); Islanders to win series (+165, BetMGM)