RALEIGH, N.C. — Turns out, the equation here is pretty simple.

If the Islanders can’t break out of their own zone, they will not win.

If the Islanders can’t stay out of the penalty box, they will not win.

Forget about Mathew Barzal’s return, forget about the power play, the goalie and everything else.

Breakouts and penalties — those were the enduring lessons in a 2-1 Game 1 loss to Carolina on Monday night at PNC Arena in which the ‘Canes had the better of the Islanders from the beginning and struck twice at five-on-four.

There’s no secrets this time of year, and this was Carolina doing what Carolina does.

The Hurricanes leveraged their speed advantage into a suffocating forecheck all over the ice.

And the Islanders — who are crucially missing Alexander Romanov on the back end — did not have a great answer.