The Mets’ three starting pitcher additions this offseason fall into these categories:
Adrian Houser is an attempt at stability.
Sean Manaea is an attempt at stability with potential upside.
Luis Severino is an upside play.
As colleague Jon Heyman first reported Sunday morning, the Mets are in agreement with Manaea on a two-year, $28 million pact that enables him to opt out after the 2024 season.
For the Mets, it continues their overall policy of this offseason: Besides 25-year-old Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Mets have not tried to secure players who would jam up future payrolls. Houser can be a free agent after this season, as could Severino, as could Manaea if he opts out, as could Jose Quintana.
It means the Mets could be trying to assemble a near total rotation around Kodai Senga for 2025. But the way they are structured — with Senga at times needing to be part of a six-man rotation and Severino (among others) unlikely to make it unscathed through a season — the Mets also will get a chance to learn about some of their more inexperienced starters, which also is part of their 2024 plans.
Let’s dig into how the starters they have brought in fit into what the Mets are trying to accomplish:
- While they are prioritizing 2025 and beyond, the Mets have stated they want to contend in 2024. Thus, they were willing to take on some 2024 volatility in the rotation for the potential upside.
Houser does not possess that upside likelihood. In the Mets’ blueprint, he would provide 22-25 starts at league average or slightly better results.
Severino is the opposite — almost all boom or bust. He has not stayed healthy, compiling just 40 starts (plus five relief appearances) over the last five seasons. And last year he was one of the majors’ worst pitchers when he did make it to the mound (6.65 ERA, .921 OPS against).
But had he allowed himself to get too bulky and lose athleticism/flexibility? Was he tipping pitches? He still was averaging nearly the same with his fastball 96.5 mph as Gerrit Cole (96.7). If he could be fixed, the Mets have a chance perhaps for a 3.0 or 4.0 Wins Above Average starter. That is not something they could get from Joey Lucchesi or Tylor Megill and so the Mets want to at least see if they can have a wild-card pitcher toward the top of the rotation.
And if Severino is unhealthy and/or ineffective, then the Mets could assess someone in his spot during the season and the contract is done after the season.
Also on the one-season basis, who is the better risk — Severino at $13 million or Frankie Montas at $16 million with the Reds.
Manaea has not been on the injured list during the last four seasons. So the Mets can believe he will take the ball. But is there more than that? He added a sweeper beginning with his May 30 outing and, from there to the end of last season for the Giants, pitched to a 3.60 ERA with a .221 batting average against. That over a full season would make him roughly a second version of Quintana.
- If the Mets don’t contend but any/all of the starters are performing well, the starters’ far from onerous contract situations make them moveable before the July 30 deadline.
- David Stearns said one of his goals was to create greater depth. Jose Butto, Lucchessi and Megill all have options. David Peterson is due back a few months into the season after hip surgery. The Mets, particularly, have not given up on their belief that Megill and Peterson still have the potential to be competent or better back-end starters.
Plus, in Dominic Hamel, Christian Scott, Tyler Stuart, Blade Tidwell and Mike Vasil, the Mets believe they have starting prospects close who can (and a few will) get an opportunity in 2024. Plus, the entire depth group becomes possibilities to fit in when the Mets need a sixth starter or potentially to help pen depth.