The Knicks needed 48 minutes from Jalen Brunson in Game 5. They received 38 points, nine rebounds and seven assists from their point guard to save their season and set up Game 6 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series against the Heat.
If the Knicks are to leave Miami with a win tonight and force a Game 7 in Madison Square Garden, Brunson likely will need to be the best player on the floor again.
Even if he isn’t — even if the Heat clinch another trip to the Eastern Conference finals — Brunson already has the inside track to become the Knicks’ best free-agent signing of all time.
What may be even more remarkable is that Brunson may spend his entire contract as one of the best bargains in the NBA — he ranked 46th in the league in salary this season.
Brunson, 26, is just entering his prime. His four-year, $104 million contract — likely to be supplemented by a larger extension before it expires — is the rare deal in which a player outperforms the expectations attached to a nine-figure deal.
Nine-figure contracts are inherently problematic. The player is usually established, hence older, hence more injury prone. They are often based on past performance, leading teams to believe that the potential for elite production up front will be worth overpaying for the decline on the back end of the deal.
You don’t have to look far to see how difficult it is to find a star who lives up to his contract:
Aaron Judge (nine years, $360 million): The Yankees captain set an impossibly high bar during last year’s 62-home run season, and will find it increasingly difficult to satisfy the expectations that come with having the richest average annual value for a position player on a contract that ends just shy of his 40th birthday. Through 29 games of the contract, Judge — who was booed during his MVP season — had a .262 batting average, six home runs and a trip to the injured list.
Francisco Lindor (10 years, $341 million): The shortstop was a disaster during his first year in Queens, posting career lows in batting average (.230), slugging (.412) and on-base percentage (.412). After finishing ninth in NL MVP voting last season, Lindor is again offering little production for his outsized paychecks, hitting .223 with a team-high 39 strikeouts.
Giancarlo Stanton (13 years, $325 million): The Yankees absorbed this massive deal before the 2018 season to acquire the reigning NL MVP. Stanton, 33, has never come close to reaching those heights again, spending much of his six seasons with the Yankees on the injured list, where he currently resides.
Gerritt Cole (nine years, $324 million): The Yankees ace has finished in the top 10 in the AL Cy Young voting — twice in the top four — in each of his three seasons in pinstripes. This year, the 32-year-old may earn the award for the first time. Through eight starts, Cole is 5-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 58 strikeouts in 51.2 innings.
Ben Simmons (five years, $170 million): The 76ers had every reason to sign the former top overall pick to a max contract in 2019. The Nets have no excuse for accepting the bloated contract — and giving away James Harden — of a player whose skills have been sapped by physical and mental ailments, limiting him to 42 total games — and career lows in every major statistic — with the Nets in two seasons.
Carlos Rodon (six years, $162 million): Carl Pavano made a better first impression. Rodon’s debut with the Yankees should be any year now.
Brandon Nimmo (eight years, $162 million): The Mets outfielder isn’t to blame for the team’s offensive woes. In the first year of his new deal, Nimmo has led the team with a team-best .311 batting average and .406 on-base percentage.
Daniel Jones (four years, $160 million): Last year, the Giants weren’t ready to commit to their quarterback long-term. Now he is making $40 million per year after leading the Giants to their first playoff victory in 11 years. The perception of this contract could change from week to week.
Aaron Rodgers (three years, $150.8 million): The four-time MVP missed the postseason in the first year of this contract he signed with the Packers. Rodgers, 39, will be worth it to the Jets if he ends the NFL’s longest playoff drought.
Max Scherzer (three years, $130 million): The three-time Cy Young winner was brilliant in Year 1 with the Mets, posting a 2.29 ERA, before a disastrous playoff outing (seven runs, four home runs, 4.2 innings) against the Padres. This season, Scherzer, 38, looks his age, recording a 5.56 ERA while being limited to five starts due to injury and a suspension.
Julius Randle (four years, $117 million): Randle bounced back after last season’s struggles, and was named to the All-NBA Third Team this season, but he hasn’t come close to reaching that level in two postseason appearances with the Knicks.
RJ Barrett (four years, $107 million): Depending on the day, Barrett’s contract either looks like a steal for the Knicks or outright theft of James Dolan. The talented and inconsistent 22-year-old will have plenty of opportunities to justify the Knicks’ faith in him.
Edwin Diaz (five years, $102 million): Months after signing the largest contract ever for a reliever, Diaz, 29, suffered a devastating knee injury during a celebration at the World Baseball Classic. He is unlikely to return this season.
Artemi Panarin (seven years, $81.5 million): The highest-paid hockey player in New York — only four NHL players have contracts of at least $100 million — hasn’t looked like it when it matters most. After producing at least 90 points for the third time in four seasons, Panarin had no goals and two assists in the Rangers’ first-round series loss to the Devils.
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This is the 13th time in franchise history the Knicks trail, 3-2, in a playoff series, needing a win in Game 6 to save their season.
The history isn’t pretty. The Knicks have won just two of the 12 series in which they faced the same scenario, essentially aligning with the 16 percent all-time series win rate of NBA teams facing 3-2 series deficits.
Won in 7
1994 Eastern Conference finals (Pacers): The Knicks took Game 6 in Indiana behind John Starks’ 26 points, allowing them to return home and punch their ticket to the NBA Finals for the first time in 21 years.
2000 Eastern Conference semifinals (Heat): Don’t romanticize the rivalry with the Heat too much. In Game 6 of this series, the Knicks recovered from an 18-point deficit to pull out a 72-70 rock fight, forcing a deciding game between the teams for the fourth straight year. The Knicks claimed it, 83-82, in Miami.
Lost in 7
1951 NBA Finals (Rochester Royals): Joe Lapchick’s Knicks lost the first three games of the series, then claimed three straight. Rochester recovered at home in Game 7.
1984 Eastern Conference semifinals (Celtics): Bernard King put the team on his back, scoring 44 points to lead the Knicks to a 106-104 win in Game 6 at Madison Square Garden. Back in Boston for Game 7, MVP Larry Bird had 39 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists to lead the eventual champs to a 121-104 win.
1992 Eastern Conference semifinals (Bulls): An overmatched, incredibly tough Knicks team held serve at home in Game 6 after getting 24 points and 11 rebounds from Xavier McDaniel, plus 15 assists from Mark Jackson, in a 100-86 win. In Game 7 in Chicago, Michael Jordan’s 42 points and Scottie Pippen’s triple-double produced a 110-81 blowout.
1995 Eastern Conference semifinals (Pacers): The Knicks took Game 6 in Indiana for the second straight year as Patrick Ewing put up 25 points and 15 rebounds in a 92-82 win. Two days later, the Hall of Famer’s legacy-staining finger roll missed the mark in Pat Riley’s final game with the Knicks.
Lost in 6
1968 Eastern Division semifinals (76ers): The Knicks weren’t ready for primetime. Hal Greer scored 35 points in Game 6 and Wilt Chamberlain added 25 points and 27 rebounds for the defending champs.
1969 Eastern Division finals (Celtics): Willis Reed had 32 points and 11 rebounds in Game 6 at Boston Garden, but Walt Frazier was limited by a groin injury. Player-coach Bill Russell (12 points, 21 rebounds) moved another step closer to his 11th championship in his final season.
1989 Eastern Conference semifinals (Bulls): In the first chapter of this iconic rivalry — and Rick Pitino’s final game as Knicks coach — Trent Tucker served as a forefather to Endy Chavez, tying Game 6 in Chicago with a 4-point play with six seconds remaining. But Jordan (40 points, 10 assists, four blocks) gave the Bulls the lead with a pair of free throws with four seconds left, and Johnny Newman badly missed a wide-open 3-pointer that would have sent the series back to the Garden.
1993 Eastern Conference finals (Bulls): The Knicks had no chance, taking on the two-time defending champs in Chicago only two days after the Charles Smith game. The Bulls closed out the series in Game 6, 96-88, for their fourth straight win of the series. My father’s tickets to Game 7 at the Garden went into the garbage.
2000 Eastern Conference finals (Pacers): Of course Reggie Miller earned his first — and only — trip to the NBA Finals at MSG. In the Pacers’ fifth Eastern Conference Finals appearance since 1994 — and third such meeting with the Knicks — New York’s favorite villain scored 34 points to give Indiana a 93-80 Game 6 win.
2013 Eastern Conference semifinals (Pacers): The Knicks’ most recent trip to the second round followed a similar script as this season’s. They defended home court in Game 5 while facing a 3-1 series deficit. In Game 6, Carmelo Anthony scored 39 points, but all that would be remembered was Roy Hibbert’s late block of the Knicks star in the Pacers’ 106-99 win.
The picture will look different by the time training camp opens in September, but following the first season since 2007 in which all three local hockey teams made the playoffs, we are already thinking about the landscape for next season.
Playoff hockey blunted the good feelings a little bit: The Rangers and Islanders lost in the first round, and the Devils made the second round but were eliminated Thursday night with a 3-2 overtime loss to the Hurricanes.
Here’s our way-too-early rankings for the locals going into next season:
1. Devils
You could make a good argument for the Rangers to occupy this spot, but it’s hard to argue with New Jersey beating them in a playoff series — and the Blueshirts still are searching for a head coach. The Devils will not sneak up on anyone in 2023-24, and parts of the lineup will look different with big money coming to Timo Meier and a handful of players hitting free agency. But this is still a capable young group built around Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier. Luke Hughes should be an early favorite for the Calder Trophy. There’s no reason to think they won’t return to the postseason.
2. Rangers
Like their counterparts across the river, making it back to the postseason is a bare minimum for the Rangers, who should still be in a Cup contention window. Chris Drury’s ultimate hire behind the bench will make a big impact. Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko are likely to be cap casualties. A group that still includes Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider, with Igor Shesterkin in nets, is still a formidable team with formidable expectations.
3. Islanders
The Islanders could get back into the playoffs, but it is difficult to see them contending for a Cup with the roster as currently constructed. Ilya Sorokin is a Vezina-level goaltender, but too often this season they asked him to win games on his own. If Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat can deliver a sorely needed 1-2 scoring punch and the front office makes the right moves this offseason, there is a path to contention, but you need to squint harder to see it than with the other two locals.