Sports betting has officially launched in North Carolina, with seven books opening at Noon ET on Monday, March 11. 

There are more than 10 welcome offers to cash in on, and it’s an excellent time of year for those offers to become available – college basketball conference tournament week offers wall-to-wall action. 

Still, if you’re begging for gambling opportunities with all your free bonus money, let me direct you toward two Tar Heel State college basketball programs worth betting on Tuesday. 

(11:30 a.m. ET, ESPN+)

The Wildcats of Davidson, N.C, gave us some electric March Madness Cinderella runs behind Steph Curry. 

But these Wildcats are nothing like that team. 

After posting a 10-3 non-conference record with a win over Maryland, the Wildcats went 5-13 in A-10 play, losing five straight to end the year and end up as the conference tournament’s No. 13 seed.  

The injury to David Skogman hurt the Wildcats badly. He was the team’s leading scorer (13.5 points per game) before missing the season’s final 12 games. The Wildcats won only three of those games. 

Davidson is seven points per 100 possessions worse offensively with Skogman off the floor, shooting 6% worse from deep – his 47% 3-point shooting clip sometimes carries the Wildcats. 

However, the Wildcats swept Fordham this year, beating the Rams without Skogman in the second meeting. 

Ultimately, I don’t love this matchup for Fordham, which posted a similarly poor 6-12 conference record en route to the A-10 tournament’s No. 12 seed. 

The Rams run a perimeter-oriented isolation offense, with Kyle Rose, Japhet Medor and Will Richardson firing away on off-the-dribble 3s. They rank second in the A-10 in 3-point rate. 

However, the Rams made almost nothing, shooting 32% from deep in conference play. They generate plenty of open jumpers (first in the league in Open 3 Rate) but don’t have the shot-makers to capitalize (last in ShotQuality’s Shot Making metric). 

And I don’t think Fordham will have an easier time canning shots against Davidson’s defense, which allows plenty of 3s (11th in the A-10 3-point rate allowed) but closes out on everything (first in Open 3 Rate allowed).

That played out across the two head-to-head meetings, with the Rams shooting 13-for-54 from 3 (24%). 

On the other end of the court, Fordham runs a drop-coverage defense that effectively denies 3-point shots (ranking first in the A-10 in 3-point rate allowed) by overplaying ball-handlers on the perimeter and shooters on the wings, funneling them into the mid-range. 

However, the Rams can’t prevent rim-runners, ranking in the seventh percentile of D-I teams in at-the-rim field goal attempts per game allowed (21) and fourth-to-last in the A-10 in paint points per game allowed (33). 

While Fordham is a solid rim defense per possession, it wasn’t enough to hold off Davidson’s rim-based attack in two meetings. Davidson ranks top 70 nationally in at-the-rim field goal attempts per game (25), and the Wildcats scored 66 combined paint points across two head-to-head matchups with the Rams.

It’s a bad schematic matchup for Fordham, and that should play out in the final meeting. Our Action PRO Model projects the Wildcats as 5.5-point neutral-court favorites over the Rams, and I agree with that math. 

Davidson -3.5 (-110, FanDuel) | Play to -4 (-110)

(4:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network)

The Wolfpack started the year so promising, surging to a 7-4 conference record. 

But they collapsed down the stretch, losing seven of nine to slide to the No. 10 seed in the ACC Tournament. 

Luckily, the Wolfpack will face the lifeless Louisville Cardinals in the first round. The Cardinals have won one game away from home this year. 

Louisville managed to keep it close with the Pack in Kentucky earlier this season, losing by six as 7.5-point ‘dogs. But the Cardinals needed an uncharacteristic 8-for-15 (53%) 3-point shooting performance to keep the game close.

Without a repeat performance – which is highly unlikely for a 30% 3-point shooting team – the Cardinals don’t match up well with the Wolfpack. 

Louisville is an isolation- and post-heavy offense, leveraging five double-digit scorers in those sets. 

However, the Wolfpack are a well above-average defense against both sets, ranking top-60 nationally in isolation PPP allowed (0.78) and post-up PPP allowed (0.77). It’s pretty hard to score over the 6-foot-9, 275-pound DJ Burns at the rim. 

In the first meeting, Louisville scored a combined 13 points on 15 isolation and post-up sets, a pedestrian 0.87 PPP. 

Conversely, NC State is also a post-up heavy offense behind Burns, who is nearly unstoppable on the low block. 

He’s too big and too crafty with his footwork. 

Additionally, the Wolfpack heavily utilize the quick-twitched point guard DJ Horne in pick-and-roll sets. While they aren’t overly efficient in those sets, that might not matter against Louisville. 

Louisville ranks 229th nationally in post-up PPP allowed (0.81) and 349th in at-the-rim PPP allowed (1.21), a death sentence against Burns. The Cardinals rank 358th in pick-and-roll PPP allowed (1.05), a death sentence against Horne. 

In the first meeting, Horne and Burns scored a combined 40 points on 9-for-15 (60%) shooting from 2-point range. The Cardinals scored a combined 43 points on 37 post-up and pick-and-roll sets, suitable for 1.16 PPP. 

Again, the Cardinals kept it within single digits in the first meeting, but only thanks to an unsustainable shooting performance at home. 

The Wolfpack should cruise to a dominant double-digit victory in a neutral-court rematch with typical shooting splits. 

North Carolina State -8.5 (-120, FanDuel) | Play to -9 (-110)