Two blockbuster quarterback trades made 10 days apart have delivered on their promise to change the NFL landscape.
Only it’s happened in the exact opposite way that was intended.
The debate over which team acquired the better quarterback — the Broncos landing nine-time Pro Bowler Russell Wilson or the Browns getting Deshaun Watson just as he entered the prime years of his career — has shifted.
Nineteen months later, the pertinent question is, “Which team made a worse trade?”
In the spirit of the NFL trade deadline passing this week, Post Sports+ started thinking about the worst NFL trades ever made and how the Wilson and Watson deals measure up. Here is a tale of the tape on the two trades made in March 2022:
Watson: Browns acquire Watson and a 2024 fifth-rounder from the Texans for a 2022 first-rounder, a 2023 first-rounder, a 2024 first-rounder, a 2023 third-rounder and a 2024 fourth-rounder
Wilson: Broncos acquire Wilson and a 2022 fourth-rounder from the Seahawks for QB Drew Lock, TE Noah Fant, DL Shelby Harris, a 2022 first-rounder, a 2023 first-rounder, a 2022 second-rounder, a 2023 second-rounder and a 2022 fifth-rounder.
The Browns gave up three first-rounders to the Broncos’ two — fracturing their relationship with former No. 1 overall pick and playoff-game winner Baker Mayfield in the process — but the Broncos gave up the bigger overall haul in terms of creating a void on the roster.
Especially when considering that the Broncos — who were expected to be Super Bowl contenders — struggled so badly during Wilson’s first year that all four first- and second-rounders wound up as top-40 picks for the Seahawks, including two top-10 picks (Charles Cross and Devon Witherspoon).
The Texans wound up using an extra first-rounder from the Browns to move up and pick No. 2 (C.J. Stroud) and No. 3 (Will Anderson) in 2023.
Watson: Five years, $230 million fully guaranteed, including a $45 million signing bonus in conjunction with the trade as an incentive to waive his no-trade clause and pick the Browns over hometown ties to the Falcons
Wilson: Five years, $245 million, including $165 million guaranteed, just two weeks before his first regular-season game with the Broncos
Though not the first fully guaranteed contract — that went to the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins in 2018 — Watson’s was by far the largest deal of its kind and changed the demands that quarterbacks make during negotiations. The dead-cap charge on Watson’s deal is more than the cap hit to keep him in every year through 2026.
If the Broncos wanted to part ways with Wilson — who seems to be butting heads with his near hand-picked head coach Sean Payton — the dead-cap charge would be $85 million. Or about double the biggest dead cap charge in NFL history. Wilson’s salary ($17 million) and option bonus ($8.4 million) in 2024 are manageable for a new team if the Broncos wanted to cut their losses and trade Wilson.
Watson: 6-4 (Browns are 11-13)
Wilson: 7-16 (Broncos are 8-17)
Texans: 6-17-1
Seahawks: 14-10
Jacoby Brissett threw for more yards and touchdowns in 11 starts for the Browns last season — while making $5 million — than Watson has in earning about $91.4 million over his first two seasons, according to Over the Cap.
The unexpected rise of Wilson’s former backup, Geno Smith, has changed the fortunes of the Seahawks.
Watson: 59.6 completion percentage, 178.5 passing yards per game, 11 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 32 sacks
Wilson: 62.3 completion percentage, 223.3 passing yards per game, 32 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 81 sacks
Watson’s statistical line across the board is way down from his numbers as a three-time Pro Bowler with the Texans. It turns out that maybe Wilson’s style of play was more of the problem than those Seahawks offensive lines because sacks have followed him to the Broncos.
Watson: Acquired after sitting out the entire 2021 season and then being told he would not face criminal charges relating to his alleged sexual misconduct with more than two dozen massage therapists, Watson’s Browns career began with an 11-game suspension under the NFL personal conduct policy.
Watson never has offered any clarity on the allegations (other than to proclaim his innocence) despite saying he would answer questions after the legal process ran its course. He reportedly settled 23 of 26 civil lawsuits against him.
On the football field, Watson’s commitment was called into question when he did not play in back-to-back games last month due to a shoulder injury even though he was medically cleared by doctors. Is that fair? Maybe or maybe not, but it’s what happens when you demand a trade from the Texans only four months after signing a four-year extension and then sit out a whole season while getting paid.
When Watson returned, he lasted just 12 snaps before landing on his shoulder after a big hit left him with a diagnosis of strained rotator cuff — suggesting the injury was real. So is the damage to his reputation.
Wilson: It seemed old Seahawks teammates couldn’t wait to bash Wilson on his way out of town for a perceived standoffish and phony demeanor. That should’ve been a troubling sign for the Broncos because it didn’t match the former NFL Walter Payton Man of the Year’s public image up until then.
Fresh start, old ways?
Wilson reportedly received permission to have his personal quarterbacks coach, nutritionist and physical therapist in the team facility, and the Broncos supplied him with his own office away from the locker room and on the floor with the coaches and executives. He navigated a line between isolating and influential, and head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s playbook became a jumbled mess of different systems that ultimately contributed to Hackett’s firing.
It turns out Wilson reportedly also tried a failed power play of getting coach Pete Carroll and general manager Jon Schneider fired in Seattle before agreeing to waive his no-trade clause.
1. Vikings trade four players and three draft picks to the Cowboys for Herschel Walker in 1989
Every list of bad NFL trades starts here because the Cowboys’ haul actually became eight draft picks after player cuts and subsequent moves.
The Cowboys used the picks to acquire five players who were part of their three Super Bowl victories in the 1990s, including all-time NFL leading rusher Emmitt Smith, 1991 No. 1 overall pick Russell Maryland and Cowboys Ring of Honor member Darren Woodson.
The Vikings thought Walker was the missing piece to a Super Bowl run, but he didn’t rush for 1,000 yards or spark a single playoff victory before he moved on to the Eagles in 1992.
2. The Watson trade
All factors included — the fully guaranteed contract, the cloud of his sexual misconduct scandal, the step-back from a deep playoff run with Mayfield in 2020 and Watson’s less-than-enthusiastic answers about playing in Cleveland — make this trade a disaster.
3. The Wilson trade
If push comes to shove and it becomes an untenable marriage, is Broncos owner Rob Walton going to pick the head coach (Payton) he hired or the quarterback he inherited? A steep price was paid for both.
4. Buccaneers trade Steve Young to the 49ers for a second-rounder and a fourth-rounder in 1987
Young was 3-16 with the Buccaneers, but waited his turn behind Joe Montana and became a six-time passing leader, Super Bowl MVP and Hall of Famer.
5. Raiders trade Randy Moss to the Patriots for a fourth-rounder in 2007
Admit it. You thought Moss was done after his Vikings career when he had two lackluster seasons with the Raiders. Then he went to the Patriots and led the NFL with 23 touchdown catches during a 16-0 regular season, proving a lot of us wrong.
6. Falcons trade Brett Favre to the Packers for a first-rounder in 1992
Imagine the social-media reaction if the Packers gave up the No. 19 pick in the draft for the Falcons backup quarterback who threw four passes (two interceptions) as a rookie out of Southern Miss. Turns out the Packers didn’t give up nearly enough for the three-time MVP.
7. Saints trade eight draft picks to Washington to draft Ricky Williams in 1999
Williams played just three years for the Saints before he was traded (for two first-round picks) to the Dolphins. Washington came out of the draft with future Hall of Famer Champ Bailey, who was later traded for Clinton Portis, a better running back than Williams. But Washington should’ve done more with this draft haul.
8. Packers trade five draft picks to Rams for John Hadl in 1974
Hadl was the NFC Player of the Year in 1973, but he went 7-12 with nine touchdowns and 29 interceptions for the Packers. The trade set the Rams up as a defense-fueled powerhouse of the 1970s.
9. Colts trade Marshall Faulk to the Rams for a second-rounder and a fifth-rounder in 1999
It turned out OK for both sides as Faulk won a Super Bowl and became a Hall of Famer with the “Greatest Show on Turf” and the Colts found their own Hall of Famer in Edgerrin James. But fans were robbed of more than one year of a Peyton Manning-Faulk partnership for such little return.
10. Buccaneers trade first-round pick to Colts for Chris Chandler in 1990
Yes, the same Chandler who eventually tapped into his talent by making two Pro Bowls and quarterbacking the 1998 Falcons to the Super Bowl. But he never won a start for the Buccaneers — 0-6 record while being outscored 188-34 — and threw five touchdowns and 14 interceptions over two seasons competing with Vinny Testaverde.
Chandler’s miserable performance only contributed to the value of the pick climbing all the way to No. 2 overall in the 1992 draft, allowing the Colts to have the top two picks.
Someone make sure that the music operator at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla., has the hit song “1999” by Prince on standby because the Jaguars are threatening to turn back the clock 24 years.
It suddenly feels very possible that AFC road to Super Bowl LVIII could run through one of the NFL’s smallest markets.
All four AFC division leaders hold 6-2 records, but the Jaguars have the 17th-most difficult remaining strength of schedule (.492 opponents’ winning percentage), according to Tankathon. Compare that slate with the paths ahead for the Ravens (most difficult, .597), Dolphins (fourth, .582) and Chiefs (12th, .522) and it seems as if the Jaguars have the inside track to a No. 1 seed, especially considering there isn’t another .500-or-better team in the South to pose a threat.
Winners of five straight and boasting a top-10 scoring defense, the Jaguars will return from this week’s bye with five of their final nine games at home, including their three toughest tests against the 49ers (Week 10), Bengals (Week 13) and Ravens (Week 15). The Ravens are the only team currently in first place remaining on their schedule.
If records wind up the same, the Jaguars lose a tiebreaker to the Chiefs, but win one over the Bills (if they catch the Dolphins in the AFC East) based on head-to-head matchups.
Since entering the NFL in 1995, the Jaguars have made eight playoff appearances and three conference championship appearances, but only were the No. 1 seed once…in 1999. After a first-round bye, they trounced the Dolphins, 62-7, in Dan Marino’s final game before losing at home to the Titans one step shy of the Super Bowl.
So, how did the Jaguars go from annual doormat — one playoff appearance from 2008-21 — to quiet contender so quickly? No big surprises: proven head coach, franchise quarterback, upgraded talent and health.
• Drafting Trevor Lawrence: The Jets were 0-13 in Dec. 2020 and leading the Lawrence sweepstakes before back-to-back late-season victories put the Jaguars atop the 2021 draft order. They made the no-brainer pick of Lawrence, and the Jets settled for twice-benched Zach Wilson at No. 2 and the 49ers traded up for bust (so far) Trey Lance at No. 3.
Later in the first round, the Bears traded up for Justin Fields at No. 10 and the Patriots selected Mac Jones at No. 15. There is a strong chance none of those other four quarterbacks are starters next season — at least not for their original teams.
• Hiring Doug Pederson: Acting fast to end the disastrous Urban Meyer experiment before Year 1 ended was the easy part. Getting the next hire right was more difficult.
The Jaguars interviewed eight candidates — only two of which (besides Pederson) since have been hired as head coaches: Matt Eberflus is 5-20 with the Bears and Nathaniel Hackett went 4-11 before he was fired by the Broncos.
Pederson, who won a Super Bowl with the Eagles before he was fired, made the most sense for Lawrence’s development from the start, but the Jaguars were thorough and waited 49 days from Meyer’s firing and 35 days from Pederson’s first interview to make it happen.
• Spending spree: The Jaguars spent $263.5 million ($158.3 million guaranteed) on eight free agents in 2022. Six are still starting — receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, tight end Evan Engram, right guard Brandon Scherff, linebacker Foye Oluokun and cornerback Darious Williams — and a seventh (defensive tackle Foley Fatukasi) plays key snaps.
The most-ridiculed contract was given to Kirk (four years, $72 million), who never had a 1,000-yard season over four years with the Cardinals. He is living up to the price tag with 127 catches for 1,628 yards and 11 touchdowns in 25 games.
• Avoiding injuries: The Jaguars were the team least-impacted by injuries last season, according to Man-Games Lost. They are tracking in a similar direction this season.
That six-hour Sunday of watching football — that you turn into a nine-hour block by watching “Sunday Night Football” — just became a one-time full 12-hour commitment unless you are willing to miss the NFL’s game of the week. Actually, maybe the game of the season to date.
The Dolphins (6-2) against the Chiefs (6-2) will be played at 9:30 a.m. EST in Frankfurt, Germany.
It’s by far the premier game ever moved out of the United States as part of the NFL’s International Series, which began in 2007. It’s only the third to feature two teams with winning records.
Consider it a good litmus test to see whether the television ratings are strong at 9:30 a.m. — or if the league needs to go back to “coincidentally” shipping out teams with low expectations.
One reason the game is in Germany is because the Chiefs are one of four NFL teams to maintain global marketing rights in the country through Jan. 1, 2027. That tidbit got us thinking about other potential future matchups that could be moved based on teams that share global marketing rights in certain countries.
How about …
Rams-Eagles in Australia: A homecoming for the most popular Australian-born player (Eagles left tackle Jordan Mailata). The two teams are next scheduled to meet in 2025. Why not in an 83,000-seat stadium in Sydney?
Dolphins-Bears in Spain: The rivalry is best known in America for the 1985 matchup, when the Dolphins secured their 1972 team’s place as the only unbeaten by defeating the eventual 15-1 Bears. They could square off in 2026 or host separate games — one in Barcelona and one in Madrid — before then.
Jaguars-Steelers in Ireland: The Big Ten opened the 2022 college football season in Ireland. Time for the NFL to follow suit. These teams are not scheduled to meet until 2026, but have a fair chance of becoming each other’s 17th game bonus opponent before then by virtue of finishing in the same spot in their respective divisions.
Patriots-Buccaneers in Switzerland: Insert joke here about a retired Tom Brady staying neutral when his two former teams face off in 2025.
No. 14 LSU at No. 8 Alabama, Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET, CBS
The rivalry lacks the same national-title implications as the years when both teams are ranked in the top four, but there is plenty to watch from a NFL Draft scouting perspective.
The Crimson Tide boast three possible top-10 picks: cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry, offensive tackle J.C. Latham and edge Dallas Turner, as well as likely second- or third-round picks in edge Chris Braswell and cornerback Terrion Arnold. Latham was in a walking boot earlier this week, but said he should be “ready” to play.
McKinstry, who has been targeted just 27 times in eight games, mirrors technical receivers’ moves, wins foot races with speed receivers and is a willing tackler in the run game.
The 6-foot-6, 360-pound Latham checks the boxes for size and length while offering plus athleticism and a high football IQ.
Turner is shining outside of 2023 No. 3 overall pick Will Anderson’s shadow with seven sacks because of his first-step explosion. He plays the run well, too.
Of the three, McKinstry looks like the biggest lock to go first at his respective position.
The Tigers are led by two likely first-rounders, receiver Malik Nabers and defensive lineman Maason Smith.
Nabers leads the nation with 981 receiving yards as a result of winning a large share of 50/50 balls and gaining separation by changing directions (or changing gears) in a flash. He is versatile enough to line up at any receiver spot.
Smith is a former five-star recruit who remains a tantalizing projection, but he might need to crush the NFL Combine because his résumé (three tackles for loss, one sack) coming back from a knee injury in the 2022 season opener is lacking.
Mekhi Wingo, another defensive line prospect, is expected to be sidelined for the next six weeks, LSU announced.