Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is planning on campaigning hard in her home state before moving quickly on to hit a slew of other states ahead of the March 5 Super Tuesday contests, hoping her performance improves enough to eventually overtake front-runner Donald Trump.
Her campaign has stressed that there’s plenty of time for Haley, 52, to overcome Trump’s 27-point polling lead in the Palmetto State, with the candidate telling supporters in New Hampshire following that state’s Jan. 23 primary that she was “just getting started.”
But the short turnaround from the Feb. 24 first-in-the-South primary to Super Tuesday presents a new challenge for Haley, who’s relied so far on her personal appeal to voters looking for an alternative to the 45th president.
After South Carolina — the last state where retail politics dominate — the former ambassador to the United Nations will have to rely on “money, money, money” to keep her campaign going, according to South Carolina GOP strategist Dave Wilson.
“She’s going to need to be able to raise the money and maintain fundraising, because that’s what’s going to put gas in the tank for her to keep the message going,” he said.
The Super Tuesday gamble
After a third-place finish in Iowa and a second-place finish in New Hampshire, Haley has picked up 17 pledged delegates to Trump’s 32.
Super Tuesday — when 874 delegates are up for grabs — will determine who can get closest to, or receive, the 1,215 delegates needed to clinch the nomination, Haley’s campaign has argued.
“As long as I keep growing per state, I am in this race,” Haley told NBC’s “Meet The Press” Sunday. “I have every intention of going to Super Tuesday, through Super Tuesday. We’re going to keep on going and see where this gets us. That’s what we know we’re going to do right now. I take it one state at a time. I don’t think too far ahead.”
The big prizes on Super Tuesday are primaries in California and Texas, which dole out 169 and 161 delegates, respectively — and where polling averages show Trump leading Haley by 51 and 61 percentage points, also respectively.
A number of high-delegate states also hold their contests later in the calendar — such as Florida (March 19, 125 delegates), Illinois (March 19, 64 delegates), Ohio (March 19, 79 delegates), New York (April 2, 91 delegates) and Pennsylvania (April 23, 67 delegates).
For now, however, Haley is focusing on her home state for the next three-and-a-half weeks as she tries to but the best face possible on her six-year-long governorship — an office she left seven years ago.
Americans for Prosperity Action, the Koch brothers-funded super PAC that boosted Haley’s campaign in Iowa, is also backing her in South Carolina with mailers, phone calls and voter outreach.
Open primary possibilities
After South Carolina, Haley plans to go to Michigan, Washington, DC., Idaho and North Dakota, her campaign manager Betsy Ankney said in a memo.
Haley’s campaign has stressed that both South Carolina and Michigan have open primaries, meaning anyone can vote in the GOP election if they didn’t vote in the Democratic contest.
The open primaries will likely boost Haley’s chances as independents and Democrats can cast their ballot for her like they did in New Hampshire, where undeclared voters helped bring her within 11 points of Trump.
Self-declared liberals and moderates made up 42% of the Granite State primary electorate, according to the AP’s VoteCast, with 61% of moderates and 74% of liberals going for Haley.
The open primary system is also used by most Super Tuesday states, allowing Haley’s campaign to argue “there is significant fertile ground for Nikki” on March 5.
“Eleven of the 16 Super Tuesday states have open or semi-open primaries. Of the 874 delegates available on Super Tuesday, roughly two thirds are in states with open or semi-open primaries,” Ankney wrote. “Those include Virginia, Texas, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Vermont, all with favorable demographics.”
Haley skipping the Feb. 8 Nevada caucus also gives her more time to speak to voters in her home state, though her failure to compete gives Trump a golden opportunity to expand his lead with the likely support of all 26 delegates from the Silver State.
Building out the strategy
The Haley campaign told The Post it has “been focused on building out state leadership teams in every state, made up of local elected officials, members of the business community, and influential grassroots leaders who are able to explain to their communities why Haley is the best candidate.”
The team has also touted raising more than $4 million since New Hampshire in online grassroots donations alone, with 60,000 new donors pledging within the past month, a Haley rep told The Post.
The campaign sold 15,000 “banned permanently” shirts after Trump threatened to blacklist anyone who donated to Haley, raising over $500,000 from that endeavor.
Going forward, the campaign has at least 10 fundraisers scheduled in the next two weeks, including in California, Texas, New York and in Trump’s own backyard of Palm Beach, Fla.
In the end, however, any chance Haley has for getting back in the race starts at home.
“How well she does in South Carolina becomes a bellwether for how voters in other states begin to feel,” said Wilson. “They look at it, and they ask the question, ‘Which horse looks like a winner?’ And [they] want to get behind that horse.”