Episode four of “Hard Knocks” with the New York Jets drops Tuesday evening on HBO.
I must admit, adding an aging Aaron Rodgers to a team filled with young talent created the perfect narrative to follow around training camp.
Generally, I find the team that “Hard Knocks” covers tends to get a lot of preseason hype from the gambling public.
Naturally, I was curious: Does this preseason hype tend to overinflate teams in the betting markets for the upcoming year?
I went back and checked the against the spread (ATS) records for every team on “Hard Knocks” dating back to the 2004 season.
You may be surprised at what I found.
Per Bet Labs, teams featured on HBO’s “Hard Knocks” since 2007 have racked up a combined 140-151-1 straight-up (SU) record but a 152-135-5 ATS record, covering at a 53% rate for a modest +8.5-unit profit (or $850 for a standard $100 per game bettor).
While these teams haven’t racked up a stellar SU record, these teams have overachieved oddsmakers’ expectations.
That’s surprising! I would’ve expected “Hard Knocks” teams to be overvalued in the market, thus leading to a negative ATS record.
This is an 18-team sample size stretching out over a decade, so it seems legit.
Let’s look at the full picture.
| Year | Team | SU Record | ATS Record | Profit (units) |
| 2022 | Cardinals | 3-14 | 8-9 | -1.7 |
| 2022 | Lions | 9-8 | 12-5 | +6.0 |
| 2021 | Colts | 9-8 | 10-7 | +2.3 |
| 2021 | Cowboys | 12-5 | 13-4 | +8.2 |
| 2020 | Chargers | 7-9 | 9-7 | +1.5 |
| 2020 | Rams | 10-6 | 9-7 | +1.4 |
| 2019 | Raiders | 7-9 | 8-8 | -0.7 |
| 2018 | Browns | 7-8-1 | 10-6 | +3.5 |
| 2017 | Buccaneers | 5-11 | 6-9-1 | -3.6 |
| 2016 | Rams | 4-12 | 4-11-1 | -7.3 |
| 2015 | Texans | 9-7 | 9-7 | +1.9 |
| 2014 | Falcons | 6-10 | 7-9 | -2.4 |
| 2013 | Bengals | 11-5 | 10-5-1 | +4.5 |
| 2012 | Dolphins | 7-9 | 7-8-1 | -0.9 |
| 2010 | Jets | 11-5 | 9-7 | +1.8 |
| 2009 | Bengals | 10-6 | 7-9 | -2.5 |
| 2008 | Cowboys | 9-7 | 7-9 | -2.5 |
| 2006 | Chiefs | 4-12 | 7-8-1 | -1 |
| TOTALS | 140-151-1 | 152-135-5 | +8.5 |
Recently, two teams have been driving most of the “Hard Knocks'” profits.
The 2022 Lions and the 2021 Cowboys went a combined 25-9 ATS in their post-Knocks season, cashing in for +14.2 units of profit.
Last season’s Lions were a covering machine in the second half of the season, covering nine of their final 10 games.
Meanwhile, the 2021 Cowboys were the best ATS team in the NFL. The Cowboys won the NFC East that season behind 4400 yards and 37 touchdowns from Dak Prescott.
The one team that didn’t perform up to snuff? The 2016 Rams.
Jared Goff became the rookie starter that season after nine games of mediocre quarterback play from Case Keenum. Goff completed 55% of his passes for a little more than 1000 yards, five touchdowns and seven interceptions.
The Rams were 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS in games quarterbacked by Goff.
Funny that Goff was the quarterback for one of the most profitable and one of the least profitable “Hard Knocks” teams.
The trends indicate that the Jets should over-perform expectations this year.
That’s good news for Jets fans!
However, I’m still low on the Jets in the upcoming season.
Aaron Rodgers and Nathaniel Hackett will need time to set up a brand-new offense, and the schedule-makers did not allow that.
The Jets’ first six weeks are brutal.
They start on “Monday Night Football” against Buffalo before playing the Cowboys and Patriots. Plus, they have a game against Denver in Mile High altitude sandwiched between games against the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs and NFC champion Eagles.
The Jets have the fourth-hardest strength of schedule by opposing win totals. It’ll be challenging for the Jets to exceed uber-high expectations.
I am also very concerned about the offensive line. The Jets finished 30th in Pro Football Focus’s pass-blocking grades last season, and the unit has looked poor in training camp and the preseason.
If the Jets can’t protect Rodgers, they won’t win games.
I’m projecting the Jets perform closer to the 2015 Texans (9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS) than the 2021 Cowboys or 2022 Lions.