Here’s a twist: The biggest free agent ever heads perhaps the weakest crop of hitters/position players ever.
Shohei Ohtani is only a DH for 2024 but he’s sure to get the biggest baseball contract ever, unless you believe long-shot rumors he’ll do a short deal and reset (why leave $500M or thereabouts on the table when you can just add an opt-out!).
Two experts and I weigh in with money predictions for all.
The elbow injury that will limit him to hitting in ’24 won’t prevent a record deal — although, true or not, some speculate he knows where he wants to go before even hearing every offer. The Dodgers are still seen as the favorite and they’re trying hard, but the Giants, Rangers, Cubs, Red Sox, Padres, Mets, Yankees, Mariners and incumbent Angels are linked to varying degrees, and the Dodgers can’t feel overly confident.
Expert 1: $535M, 11 years. Expert 2: $400M, 10 years (opt-out after 2024). Me: $600M, 10 years.
Now healthy, he recaptured past hitting skill to go with terrific all-around play. The incumbent Cubs, Yankees and Giants are in play.
Expert 1: $220M, 8 years. Expert 2: $150M, 6 years. Me: $240M, 8 years.
A nagging finger injury curtailed his hitting in 2023 (.204 after April, .240 overall) but he’s one of the game’s best defenders and still a 4-WAR player.
Expert 1: $156M, 6 years. Expert 2: $80M, 4 years (opt-out after 2024). Me: $150M, 6 years.
Late rally ensured fourth straight 25-homer season.
Expert 1: $68M, 4 years. Expert 2: $42M, 3 years. Me: $48M, 3 years.
He had a big year, but Dodgers had to make room for Ohtani.
Expert 1: $63M, 3 years. Expert 2: $15M, 1 year. Me: $44M, 2 years.
Missed 2023 with knee injury, and Phillies missed him.
Expert 1: $60M, 3 years. Expert 2: $40M, 2 years (opt-out after 2024). Me: $20M, 1 year.
First-time All-Star will cash in. Expert 1: $56M, 4 years.
Expert 2: $36M, 3 years. Me: $45M, 3 years.
Had best year for Nats and Cubs after being non-tendered.
Expert 1: $48M, 4 years. Expert 2: $20M, 2 years. Me: $39M, 3 years.
Big year for world-champion Texas.
Expert 1: $45M, 3 years. Expert 2: $18M, 2 years. Me: $30M, 2 years.
Lucky to escape the qualifying offer after 36-homer season.
Expert 1: $42M, 3 years. Expert 2: $34M, 2 years. Me: $36M, 2 years.
Good defense in center, with power.
Expert 1: $40M, 4 years. Expert 2: $80M, 5 years. Me: $60M, 4 years.
Great center fielder.
Expert 1: $23M, 2 years. Expert 2: $18M, 2 years. Me: $22M, 2 years.
New style of play benefits speedster.
Expert 1: $24M, 3 years. Expert 2: $15M, 2 years. Me: $18M, 2 years.
Big year in Boston made $6.7M opt-out easy call.
Expert 1: $14M, 1 year. Expert 2: $12M, 1 year. Me: $22M, 2 years.
Had his best year when least expected.
Expert 1: $17M, 2 years. Expert 2: $7M, 1 year. Me: $12M, 1 year.
Killed it in World Series.
Expert 1: $9M, 1 year. Expert 2: $7.5M, 1 year. Me: $10M, 1 year.
An off-year wasn’t well-timed, but big playoff performer is great in center.
Expert 1: $9M, 1 year. Expert 2: $8M, 1 year. Me: $11M, 1 year.