We’re on to Game 5 of the NBA Finals after Denver won both games in Miami. 

As a handicapper, I fully believe that the Heat are cooked, and the Nuggets will cruise to an NBA Finals victory on their home court. 

Everything had to break right for the No. 8-seeded Heat to make this postseason run. 

Jimmy Butler turned into Michael Jordan, Bam Adebayo became a monstrous two-way presence, and the Heat role players shot the lights out.

Unfortunately, almost all great Cinderella runs eventually end. 

Butler twisted his ankle, the shots eventually stopped falling, and Miami turned back into an average squad. 

The Heat have lost six of their last eight games while posting a combined Offensive Rating under 110.

They lost by double digits in five of those six contests, failing to reach 100 points in each loss. 

Meanwhile, the Nuggets continue to roll on as the most unstoppable offense in the league. 

The Nikola Jokic-Jamal Murray pick-and-roll has been unstoppable, the Nuggets are getting to the rim at will (while shooting almost 75% at the rim), and they’ve scored 117.9 points per 100 possessions in these NBA Finals.

The Heat managed to win Game 2 on the back of a 17-for-35 3-point shooting performance, but the Nuggets quickly adjusted defensively, closing out on shooters better.

After the adjustments kicked in, Miami ran out of answers, making no re-adjustments. 

As a result, the Nuggets are simply scoring at a way higher clip.

I don’t expect the Heat to wake up and “figure it out” on the road at mile-high altitude in Game 5. 

I wish there were more nuance to discuss in this game – handicapping the NBA Finals should be a treat – but Game 5 feels cut and dry.

Lay the points with Denver in Game 5, and enjoy the offseason!

Nuggets -8.5 (-112, FanDuel) | bet to Nuggets -9.5 (-110)