The Heat have overcome the odds each step of the way in these NBA Playoffs.
But now, they face a near-impossible task in a nearly insurmountable spot.
I don’t see Miami keeping Game 1 close.
Odds via BetMGM.
Also Read: Heat vs. Celtics series preview
(9:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
There are two main things to dissect before Game 1.
Firstly, the situational spot.
Per Raheem Palmer of The Ringer, NBA playoff teams coming off a Game 7 win are 33-53 straight up in Game 1 of the next series.
But the Heat are no ordinary Game 7 winning team.
Instead, the Heat played a grueling, physical, defensive-minded series against the Celtics and will play at mile-high altitude in the next game.
The Nuggets are 8-0 with a +13.1 Net Rating at home during this playoff run, and I guarantee the elevation is part of that.
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Moreover, Miami is battling a Nuggets team on an extra week of rest (Miami closed out the East Finals on Memorial Day Monday, while Denver closed out the West Finals the Monday before).
Per Joe Dellera of The Action Network, “non-first round playoff games where one team has had a week or more off, and the opponent has just 1-3 days off, those teams are 17-5 against the spread.”
How do we expect an exhausted Miami team at a rest disadvantage to compete with a fully rested Denver team at limited oxygen levels?
Not to mention that history is against Miami. Per Evan Abrams of The Action Network, Game 1 favorites in the NBA Finals are 16-2 straight up and 15-3 against the spread since 2005.
The second point to break down is the on-court matchup.
The Nuggets are a motion-based offense circling our generation’s best scoring and passing center.
Meanwhile, the Heat have one competent big-man defender in Bam Adebayo, who struggled mightily against Jokic in regular-season meetings.
Miami doesn’t have the horses to stop Jokic.
Technically, the Heat didn’t have the horses to stop Boston’s deadly wing duo.
However, Miami defended Boston primarily by forcing turnovers and confusing the Celtics by switching to a zone defense.
Unfortunately, neither option will be effective against Denver.
The Nuggets lead all 2023 playoff teams in assist-to-turnover ratio (2.27) and can easily circumvent zone defense by using Jokic as a high-post pin.
The Heat don’t have the defensive tools to slow down the Nuggets.
Denver posted a 124 Offensive Rating in two regular-season meetings with Miami, winning both games.
Stretching that sample size out, the Nuggets are 9-1 straight up and against the spread in their last 10 games against Miami while shooting over 50% from the field.
And the Nuggets enter the Finals playing their best basketball.
They boast a 119.7 Offensive Rating during their 15 playoff games, which would be the best regular-season mark of all time if stretched out over 82 games.
Considering the matchup and the situational spot, I’m betting the Nuggets win this game in a rout.
Nuggets -8.5 (-105, BetMGM) | Play to -10 (-110)