Giannis Antetokounmpo is back in action for the Bucks, and it couldn’t come at a better time with the Heat holding a 2-1 lead ahead of Monday’s NBA playoffs Game 4 in Miami.
Oddsmakers are relatively measured on the two-time MVP entering a virtual must-win spot, while bettors are all over Heat star Jimmy Butler to carry his team to another victory.
Will either of those two stars rise to the occasion in this one?
Here’s how we’re betting the player props market for Monday’s contest, which tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
(via BetMGM)
When news first broke of Antetokounmpo’s return, I was fairly certain I’d be betting the under on his points prop in a quintessential “fade the hype” betting spot.
The more I stare at this number, though, the better I feel about him cashing the over.
Clearly, oddsmakers are expecting a sluggish return for Antetokounmpo, who averaged 31.1 points in the regular season and has scored at least 27 points in 21 of his last 30 playoff games.
Are we sure his ailing back is enough to bet this low on his scoring potential if he’s healthy enough to suit up?
Consider that Antetokounmpo has played in nine games this year directly after missing a game with injury. He’s averaged a ridiculous 36.6 points in those nine “returning” spots, scoring at least 27 points in each of the last eight contests.
Obviously, there’s some risk with this prop: if Antetokounmpo’s back is far worse than team officials are letting on, then he won’t come anywhere near this prop.
Otherwise? He should be able to clear this mark with ease.
In the hours before Monday’s tip-off, the over on Butler’s scoring total was the single most-bet player prop at BetMGM by ticket count.
I simply couldn’t disagree more with the betting public.
While Antetokounmpo’s return should provide a clear jolt for Milwaukee’s offense, it’s similarly a boon for the Bucks’ defense, which has underwhelmed without their 7-foot star roaming the paint.
It’s also bad news for Butler, who is averaging 30 points in this series and is at his best when attacking downhill – a much tougher ask with the former DPOY back in the lineup.
It’s not like Butler’s overall scoring history supports this gaudy mark, either.
He averaged 22.9 points during the regular season, and he’s scored just 20.3 points per game across 100 career postseason contests, finishing with 29 or more points in a mere 23 of them.
He’s also historically struggled to score against Milwaukee in the postseason before this year’s matchup.
Butler was held below 20 points in all four games against the Bucks in 2021, and he’d scored 29 or more points in just four of 15 such playoff matchups before this series.
With Antetokounmpo in tow, don’t expect another big scoring night from the Miami star.