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These three things are true:
• Clarke Schmidt recently eclipsed his previous career high in innings as a professional.
• The Yankees are likely around 10 days away from getting Nestor Cortes back in their rotation.
• Schmidt has been one of their best starters over the last two months.
And then there’s the wild card: The trade deadline looms on Tuesday, before which the Yankees could add a starter or send out a starter — possibly even Schmidt — to either make the whole situation even more complicated or solve the dilemma.
All of which is to say that while Schmidt’s spot in the rotation for the rest of the season may not be 100 percent secure, the right-hander has put himself in the best position he can to remain in his current role.
Schmidt surpassed his previous career high in innings as a pro (90 ⅔) on July 15 against the Rockies, when he pitched into the seventh inning for the first time in his career. On Saturday night against the Orioles, barring a disaster, he will hit the century mark. But so far, the Yankees do not have an innings cap in mind for Schmidt.
“I wouldn’t think so,” pitching coach Matt Blake told Sports+ recently. “We haven’t had that conversation yet as far as, ‘We’re not going to let him go past 130 or 140 [innings].’ But we’re open-minded, too. There’s a trade deadline coming up — who knows what comes and goes? Who knows who gets hurt, who gets healthy? So in the meantime, if he’s responding well and everything’s checking out, we’ll kind of keep chugging along.”
Initially expected to battle with Domingo German for the fifth starter spot entering spring training, Schmidt began the season in the rotation because of injuries to Carlos Rodon, Frankie Montas and Luis Severino.
The 27-year-old had a rocky first month and a half, but in part because the Yankees did not have any real options to replace him, Schmidt got the chance to work through his struggles in the big leagues and has benefited because of it.
Since May 15, who is the Yankees starter with the lowest ERA? That would be Schmidt at 3.05 across 11 starts, coming in just ahead of Gerrit Cole’s 3.22 across 12 starts.
“I think physically, I feel great,” Schmidt said. “I have a good routine in between starts, so I’ve been bouncing back good. I don’t really feel any fatigue body-wise, so it’s been good.”
The way Schmidt has pitched lately would make it more difficult to take him out of the rotation when Cortes comes back.
What would bolster his spot even more is if he could show an ability to work deeper into games.
Through his first 20 starts of the season, Schmidt has completed six innings on just three occasions. At times that has been because of pitch counts, but others are like his outing last Friday, when he was pulled after 5 ⅔ innings and 64 pitches while in a jam in a game the Yankees needed to win.
A big reason why? When facing a lineup the third time through in a game, Schmidt has allowed a slash line of .313/.375/.547, compared to .241/.294/.349 the first time through and .275/.328/.538 the second time through.
“I think that’s the next part of my learning curve is continuing to learn how to face those guys a third time through,” Schmidt said. “When you’re in the deep part of the game, how to be creative enough without trying to stray away from your strengths.
“Because it takes a lot of work to get to that point in the game, but the job’s not done. A [pitching] line can really get out of hand towards the end of the game. So you have to be able to manage it towards the end of the game as well. I think that’s the next part where I’m continuing to learn how to get deeper in games.
“I know the game’s changed a lot with how things are set up analytically, but you still want to put yourself in that position to be able to possibly be out there.”
Those splits would seem to suggest Schmidt might be more successful as a reliever, perhaps in a multi-inning role, which he pitched in for most of last season. But given Schmidt’s improvement just from the start of this season, it’s not out of the realm of possibility he could make some strides in having better success deeper in games.
The question is how soon that can happen and whether the Yankees will give him that chance, especially as they bear down for a playoff chase over the final two months.
If the Yankees go strictly by recent performance, German or Severino would appear to be most in danger of losing his rotation spot, though Severino has looked better in the second half.
But then there is that wild card: Is it possible Schmidt has built up his value enough that he could be part of a trade the Yankees make to land a much-needed left fielder? Like last year’s Jordan Montgomery-Harrison Bader swap, the Yankees could determine Schmidt would not be part of their postseason rotation this October and use him as part of a package to land an everyday left fielder.
Montgomery’s and Schmidt’s situations are not exactly alike — especially because Schmidt is under team control through 2027, whereas Montgomery was only through 2024 — but it’s worth keeping an eye on.
If not Schmidt, could Severino possibly be shipped out as a rental? Or German, who has one more year of team control after this season?
Then again, as good as Randy Vasquez (and at times, Jhony Brito) has looked in limited spot starts this season, should the Yankees really be trimming their already thin starting depth?
Those questions will be answered by 6 p.m. on Tuesday.
For now, Schmidt plans to keep growing as a starter, enjoying the steady nature of a five-day or six-day routine while venturing into uncharted territory in terms of workload.
“There’s definitely personal goals that you have, and one of those was I wanted to get 30 starts and I wanted to get as many innings as I possibly can,” Schmidt said. “I’m just trying to continue to build that workload and continue to put up innings and go deep in games.”
Added Blake, “I think it’s been outstanding. His work’s been really good. His throwing program’s been very diligent. He’s been working on a lot of things all year, whether it’s on the delivery or the cutter or the sinker or getting the breaking ball shapes right to certain areas. He’s handled it really well to this point and really matured as a starter. I think that’s part of it, is learning how to carry yourself every five or six days and making sure your work’s good enough and not overtaxing.”
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Last year’s deadline served a reminder that trades that initially seem like wins are not always that, and vice versa.
Brian Cashman made five deals before last summer’s deadline, at the time highlighted by acquiring Andrew Benintendi from the Royals and Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino from the A’s. Shipping out Montgomery to land an injured Bader was met with much more confusion and apprehension.
By October, Benintendi and Montas were injured and Bader was one of the Yankees’ best bats in the playoffs.
That said, here are a few things to keep in mind ahead of Tuesday, based on Cashman’s last handful of trade deadlines.
• Not everyone fits: The Yankees were reminded of this the hard way in 2017 and 2021 when they acquired Sonny Gray and Joey Gallo, respectively. Both had tough tenures in The Bronx before the Yankees tried to cut their losses and moved them in other deals. Doing due diligence on potential trade targets is essential.
• Sometimes the least-heralded trades work best: When the Yankees landed Clay Holmes from the Pirates on July 26, 2021, hardly anyone batted an eye. Two years later, Holmes is the Yankees’ closer. Don’t be surprised if the Yankees add another relief arm in the coming days, even if the name doesn’t come with a ton of fanfare.
• Beware those eligible for the Rule 5 draft: The Yankees have often used the deadline to clear up decisions on their crowded 40-man roster by trading prospects who would have been eligible for that year’s Rule 5 draft. A sampling of Yankees prospects who either need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason or will be exposed to the Rule 5 draft: OF Jasson Dominguez, C Austin Wells, RHP Clayton Beeter, OF Elijah Dunham, C Carlos Narvaez, 1B/3B Andres Chaparro, OF Brandon Lockridge, RHP Sean Boyle, RHP Matt Sauer, RHP Carson Coleman.