The First Four matchups in Dayton are intriguing for two reasons.
First, many of these play-in squads use the Dayton games as a springboard for a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, like UCLA in 2021.
Second, many of these games devolve into disgusting rock fights, such as Virginia vs. Colorado State on Tuesday.
Grambling State vs. Montana State falls into the latter category.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grambling State | +4.5 (-108) | +180 | o134.5 (-108) |
| Montana State | -4.5 (-112) | -218 | u134.5 (-112) |
(6:40 p.m. ET, truTV)
Montana State can force turnovers.
The Bobcats thrive on chaos, leading the Big Sky in steal rate. That should play against Grambling, among college basketball’s worst ball-handling teams.
However, if the Tigers can mostly minimize their turnover issues, there’s plenty to like about this matchup.
Montana State thrives on pace and shooting, running an elite dribble hand-off offense. During Big Sky play, the Bobcats canned 40% of their 22 3-point attempts per game.
However, Grambling can effectively defend the perimeter. The Tigers ranked second in the SWAC in 3-point and Open 3-point Rate allowed.
On the other end of the court, the Tigers’ downhill rim-running offense offers an exciting clash of styles.
In isolation, they primarily leverage solid low-major athleticism, with Kintavious Dozier, Tra’Michael Moton and Antwan Burnett combining for more than 30 points per game while shooting more than 50% from inside the arc.
Big Sky teams have struggled with athleticism in the NCAA Tournament. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Montana State struggle Wednesday, as the Bobcats’ defense is highly vulnerable on the interior (34 paint points per game allowed, 22nd percentile; 54% two-point shooting allowed, 333rd nationally).
The Bobs rank 326th nationally in at-the-rim points per game allowed, with more than 31. That’s a massive problem against the Tigers.
I worry mightily about turnovers, but at the minimum, I don’t think Grambling should be catching 4.5 points in a potentially ugly, points-at-a-premium battle. Most projection systems make the Tigers between +2 and +3.
So, I’ll take the points with the Tigers, and maybe they’ll hand Purdue another No. 16 seed vs No. 1 seed upset.
Grambling State +4.5 (-110, DraftKings) | Play to +4