Fresh polling shows former President Donald Trump with an edge over President Biden in the battleground state of Georgia some eight months out from their expected rematch.
Trump dispatched Biden 46% to 42%, which marks a decline from his six-point lead about a month ago, according to a poll from Emerson College Polling/The Hill. Twelve percent of voters were undecided.
Trump similarly won out 52% to Biden’s 48% among undecided voters, according to the poll.
When third-party contenders were added to the mix, the 77-year-old’s lead grew even stronger, jumping to 44% followed by Biden at 37%, environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr at 5%, political activist Cornel West at 2% and Green Party hopeful Jill Stein at 1%.
“Biden voters are twice as likely to be motivated by their dislike for Trump (30%) compared to Trump voters’ motivation by their dislike for Biden (15%),” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, explained.
“A plurality of Trump voters (32%) are breaking for him due to their concern about an issue, with the economy (29%) and immigration (21%) being the top priorities for these voters.”
The survey was taken from March 5 to 7 and sampled 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Trump is averaging a 6.2 percentage point lead over Biden, 81, in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of Georgia polling.
Once seen as a reliable red state, Georgia has suddenly grown increasingly competitive, opting for Biden in 2020 and sending two Democrats to the US Senate. It marked the first time since 1992 that Georgia went blue in a presidential cycle.
The state has 16 of the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the presidency. It is generally considered among the top six or seven battleground states that will determine the 2024 winner.
Trump erupted in fury during the aftermath of his loss in Georgia and infamously rang Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to stress the need to “find” 11,780 votes needed to overturn his loss.
That triggered an investigation from the Fulton County District Attorney’s Office that culminated in a 13-count indictment, to which Trump has pleaded not guilty and denied wrongdoing.
Throughout that process, Trump’s relationship with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp grew acrimonious. Trump backed one of Kemp’s GOP primary rivals in the 2022 midterm elections and assailed him publicly.
But Kemp hinted Tuesday that he voted for Trump in Georgia’s GOP primary contest.
“I voted Friday in the Republican presidential preference primary and I’ve said for a long time now I’d support the nominee,” he told reporters.
“Well, I think he’d be better than Joe Biden. It’s as simple as that,” Kemp explained when pressed about how he could vote for Trump.
Kemp repeatedly appeared to voice apprehension about Trump while the GOP primary contest was still alive but stopped short of endorsing any of his rivals.
Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi and Washington are all set to hold their Republican presidential nominating contests Tuesday. Trump is the de facto nominee already with 1,089 of the 1,215 delegates needed to clinch the party nod.
“I know when Secretary Raffensperger picked this day, I know he thought we might be the determining state. It ends up we’re kind of an afterthought at this point,” Kemp said.
Trump enjoys a slim 1.7 percentage point edge over Biden in national head-to-head matchup polling and when pitted against his successor in most of the key battleground states, according to the latest RealClearPolitics aggregates.