The Giants are now underdogs to the winless Saints despite defeating the Chargers in their last game.
In perhaps a surprising move, the Giants opened as 1.5-point favorites to the New Orleans Saints, but have since moved off favorite status and fallen to +1.5 underdogs.
This line movement may be related to Malik Nabers’ injury, but while it was unknown whether the star receiver would be out for the year, he was really never expected to play on Sunday once he went down.
Three-point line moves don’t happen often, so let’s dive into why some of the sharps moved this number so drastically and whether the Saints can take this game away from Brian Daboll and Big Blue.
When asked why this line move occurred, Fanatics Sportsbook’s lead trader Ethan Useloff had this to say.
“Despite opening as favorites, the Giants are now +2.5 against New Orleans,” Useloff told The Post. “The market reflects rookie Jaxson Dart’s difficult task in leading an offense without their top receiver. As the home team, the Saints get the favorite status and benefit of the doubt as this market has shifted towards them.”
The Giants have not been really able to stop the run, which is a bit of a concern considering the Saints are 16th in the league in yards per rush attempt (4.4 YPC).
The Saints are also No. 18 in run game offense DVOA, far ahead of their passing game DVOA, which comes in at No. 25.
Big Blue has some really terrible advanced data statistics out there.
Worse than the Saints in offense DVOA and defense DVOA. That is why many sharps moved this line, as in theory, the Giants should not be favored at home by 4.5 points over the Saints.
My model also likes the Saints, indicating that they should be three-point favorites.
This is a rare case where I am fading the model. The Giants just got their two best players infused into the lineup, as Jaxson Dart is the new quarterback, while he has his All-Pro blindside tackle, Andrew Thomas, behind him.
That’s why I think those advanced stats are lying to us right now.
Fade the sharps. I’m going with Big Blue to feed tight end Theo Johnson as his top target and come away with a victory.
THE PLAY(s): Giants moneyline (+110, FanDuel) | Theo Johnson scores a touchdown (+425, ESPN BET)
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.