It’s sometimes hard to tell whether the Dallas Cowboys are properly valued or overhyped.
After losing in the NFC Divisional Round and retooling in the offseason, it looks as though “America’s Team” is poised to be a legitimate NFC threat.
But the same can be said for the New York Giants—also spearheaded by 2022 Coach of the Year winner, Brian Dabboll.
Dabboll took a Giants team that went 6-11 against the spread in 2021 to an NFL-best 14-5 last season.
Big Blue was also 6-3 at home and 11-3 as underdogs on the point spread.
Dallas won both meetings against New York last year in one-possession ball games.
So the question is how and if Dallas Head Coach Mike McCarthy can muster success for a third straight time against one of the league’s most resourceful football minds.
The Giants’ biggest problem—and ultimately an achilles heel when their season ended in January—has been the offensive line.
They were one of the worst groups in football with 49 sacks taken (T27th).
Some efficient offseason upgrades were made to the roster by GM Joe Schoen.
But other than drafting C John Michael Schmitz Jr. in the second round, there wasn’t much focus on fortifying Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley.
That will spell the biggest challenge in containing a vicious Dallas pass rush on Sunday night.
Leading Defensive Player of the Year Candidate Micah Parsons leads the bunch with three tackles and two sacks against the Giants in 2022.
Dallas averaged 3.17 sacks per game last season; the only teams that collected more were the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles.
Speaking of Schoen’s additions, Jones will have a new key piece in his receiving corps with Pro Bowl TE Darren Waller.
Waller is expected to be Jones’ top target as he brings size and speed to evade both defensive ends and linebackers.
Only Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews have more yards per game in the past five seasons than Waller. Both have played at least 11 more games.
Waller’s presence should distract coverage away for a group of unheralded wideouts, including Darius Slayton, who just posted 700+ yards for the third time in his career.
After signing the unexpected one-year extension, Barkley will need to make his case heard to management by performing in divisional games. He’s bouncing off a career-best 4.4 YPC and 82 YPG.
Dallas has harnessed issues in defending against the run allowing 4.4 YPC, which was primarily addressed by drafting DT Mazi Smith in the first round.
The Michigan product accrued 28 tackles in 14 games.
His effect against Barkley remains to be seen, but the latter has 4.9 YPC and averaged 35.1 reception yards in eight career games against Dallas.
He scored in both of the previous two meetings.
And when in doubt, the phenomenon of Jones’ rushing abilities has proven to make the Giants backfield a one-two dynamic punch for opposing secondaries.
Jones racked up 44.25 rushing yards last season and eclipsed his previous best total by 285 yards.
What really remains to be seen is how Dak Prescott will rebound from a season riddled with turnovers.
Prescott led the NFL with 15 interceptions and tossed a pair of them to the Giants in his only game against them in 2022.
The Cowboys will have a new Offensive Coordinator in Brian Schottenheimer, who will focus on nourishing the connection between Prescott and CeeDee Lamb.
In 2022, Lamb led the league in slot targets.
The fourth-year deep-ball threat’s numbers have progressed each year with a peak of 79.9 yards.
He’ll prove to be a true first test for Adoree’ Jackson, who is now patrolling the slot.
There will also be emphasis on getting Tony Pollard a productive workload from the backfield.
Pollard’s breakout campaign featured 1,000+ yards and nine touchdowns.
The Cowboys have always had an exhausting run game, so it’s a good thing the Giants secondary made some upgrades headlined by LB Bobby Okereke, who is also coming off a career-best season with 151 tackles for Indianapolis.
It’s not a secret that divisional home underdogs in Week 1 have covered the spread in 25 of 38 games. They’re also 7-0 since 2018.
Despite any deficiencies either side will need to overcome, this game should be a hard-fought rivalry bout.
Dallas has the better roster and higher stakes this season, but the trending quarterback and coach is on New York’s side. Plus, this is on Giants turf.
The Giants have lost 11 of the last 12 meetings with the Cowboys and six of those games were by more than two possessions.
But this is the Brian Dabboll era and New York is knocking on the NFC East door.
It wouldn’t surprise me if this one comes down to within a field goal.
Giants +3.5 at FanDuel (-115)