And just like that, another top quarterback prospect prematurely cast into the flames.
It’s business as usual these days when the provisional plan isn’t enough to compensate for organizational instability and jobs become at stake.
Welcome to the NFL, Jaxson Dart.
The No. 25 overall pick will take his 101 course against Jim Harbaugh’s disciplined, aggressive defensive ploy as the Giants seek their first win, while the Chargers can retain a perfect record.
Los Angeles comes to East Rutherford as 6.5-point favorites after playing three straight divisional games — two of which they won by one possession.
Second-year DC Jesse Minter has implemented an effective, modernized version of Vic Fangio’s system, which uses a pre-snap disguise in order to confuse the quarterback. This scheme has allowed just 16.6 points per game, ranking within the top 10 in both passing and rushing yards allowed.
Now, given the Chargers’ emotional drain from division play — and that they’re facing a team in peril while on jetlag, this screams trap. The public seems to agree as 59% of the handle is on Big Blue to cover.
But with no frame of reference on Dart, a low-scoring game is the narrative that gives me more ease. That’s especially considering that despite the Ole Miss product’s exceptional arm talent and playmaking ability, his scouting report noted concerns with his ability to adjust against zone coverage.
The Chargers have executed zone coverage to a tee, limiting explosive plays and using the zone shell to keep everything in front, which has forced longer drives and increased the chances of offensive mistakes. It’s also made for the single most effective red zone percentage, allowing teams to score only 25% from within the opposing 20-yard line.
Only two collective passing scores have been caught against the Chargers between the Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos.
All this in mind, the Giants could be looking to mitigate risk by calling for more runs from Cam Skattebo and shorter passes.
On the other side of the pigskin, Justin Herbert has been as efficient as any. He’s delivering a 6-1 TD-INT ratio and leading the league in yards per game at 286.7. He’s firing high percentage throws and with the three-game sample size, looks to be taking a step forward in assuming veteran command of this offense.
Though in a historically bad spot for scoring, it’s extra possible that Harbaugh leans heavily on the run and this becomes more of a grind-it-out affair.
The Giants have been leaky against the run, allowing the second-most ypg (153.3).
But with fewer explosive plays and slower drives expected — even if the Chargers do control the game script — Brian Daboll’s hot seat situation only adds to the case for the Under.
The pick: Under 43.5 (-105, DraftKings)
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.