


Christian McCaffrey is the best running back in the NFL.
There’s no question with his dual-threat ability and explosiveness that the 27-year-old is something special.
In the season opener against Pittsburgh, McCaffrey rushed for 152 yards and a touchdown.
The following week, he played every single snap and rushed for 116 yards in the 49ers’ win over the Rams.
So it’s easy to think that on “Thursday Night Football” that McCaffrey will see similar usage and another 20+ carry game when the 49ers welcome the Giants.
This is the same Giants team that allowed 5.0 yards per carry to Tony Pollard in the season opener and 4.6 to James Conner the following week.
Surely, McCaffrey is up next?
He very well could break free for a 50+ yard run.
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We’ve seen it happen in both games thus far.
But it’s what Kyle Shanahan said after the game that gives me worry and has me eyeing a different San Francisco running back in the prop market.
“We’ve definitely got to get Elijah in there more and do better with our rotation than we did [Sunday],” Shanahan said. “That wasn’t the plan going in. It just ended up that way and I’ve got to make sure that doesn’t happen.”
It’s that last sentence that speaks volumes.
McCaffrey is still the RB1 in San Francisco, and he’s going to see 15+ carries and plenty of work in the passing game.
But this is an opportunity to buy low on Mitchell, who has logged just five carries through the first two games.
Unfortunate is the word to describe Mitchell’s situation.
The third-year running back has dealt with injuries both years with SF and the acquisition of McCaffrey shot him down to second on the depth chart.
But when at full strength, Mitchell is extremely effective.
In 16 games, Mitchell has combined for 1,242 yards and seven touchdowns.
That translates to just shy of 5 yards per carry.
Shanahan has a commitment to utilizing the ground game and with Brandon Aiyuk questionable and limited in practice all week, we could see an increased usage out of McCaffrey, Mitchell and even Deebo Samuel in the backfield.
In all four regular-season games where both running backs played alongside one another last season, Mitchell saw at minimum five carries.
He never finished with less than 35 yards and broke out double-digit gains.
Long story short, Mitchell is extremely effective.
He and McCaffrey might be best backfield duo in the NFL.
And even with his absence from Week 2’s win, Shanahan took the blame and made it a point to mention he needs to be better about utilizing Mitchell.
I’m taking his word for it.
Not to mention that the 49ers enter the game as 10-point favorites against the Giants.
Brock Purdy has stepped right into the spotlight and the San Francisco offense is as efficient as it gets.
We could very well see a blowout on our hands.
If there’s a late double-digit lead, McCaffrey’s usage should see a downtick — his rush attempts prop sits at 17.5, a number he cleared just 3 of 14 times last season with the 49ers.
There’s no point in risking injury when there’s a more-than-capable back in Mitchell waiting behind him.
I’m backing Mitchell’s rushing yards over tonight.
Additionally, his anytime touchdown odds are as high as +280. If the game script goes according to plan and San Francisco has a huge lead, we could see Mitchell take over the bell-cow role in the second half.
His anytime TD odds in that half is +500.