“College GameDay” is in Knoxville, so you know that Saturday’s showdown between No. 6 Georgia (2-0) and No. 15 Tennessee (2-0) is as big as it gets for Week 3.
The Bulldogs haven’t exactly lit it up in the early going, but they are four-point favorites on the road against the Vols, who dismantled Syracuse and East Tennessee State in Weeks 1 and 2.
Is the betting market giving Georgia too much credit for past success in this one? Let’s dive in and try to answer that question.
It wasn’t a typical offseason for Kirby Smart and Georgia.
Ever since his arrival in Athens, we’ve become accustomed to the Bulldogs being hyped up as one of the best teams in the country, though this summer it felt a little quieter than usual.
Still, Georgia was tagged as one of the betting favorites to win the national championship — most sportsbooks had them behind only Ohio State and Texas — and the Bulldogs were the second choice in the SEC.
And yet, it still felt like most pundits were pointing to a step back from the Bulldogs in 2025, whether that be of their own doing or just because the rest of the SEC has caught up.
The skeptics may have been onto something.
Georgia earned wins in its first two games, but things were not entirely promising, especially in a 28-6 victory over Austin Peay.
Perhaps Smart and his staff have chosen to keep things close to the vest, knowing Tennessee and Alabama followed Marshall and Austin Peay, but the offense has seemingly been reduced to short passes, leading to questions about the team’s faith in quarterback Gunner Stockton.
We should find out more Saturday, as there is no way that Georgia will be able to keep pace with an explosive Tennessee offense by just pitter-pattering the ball around with screen passes.
With a banged-up O-line in front of him, the pressure will be on Stockton to come out of his comfort zone, which shouldn’t give much comfort to Georgia fans.
On the other side, Joey Aguilar has taken to life in Knoxville like a duck to water and his supporting cast has answered some important early questions.
Tennessee will want to get this game on its terms from the jump, and while that’s easier said than done against Georgia, if the Vols can ping the pigskin around the field with some success, the Bulldogs won’t be able to keep up.
This seems like a classic case of the betting market giving too much credit to a team for historical performance.
Rocky Top. Outright.
The Play: Tennessee +146 (FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.