The NFL’s “Thursday Night Football” has been lame-duck programming this season. 

I expect the Giants will be blown out against the 49ers this week.

So, why not turn on college football’s version of “Thursday Night Football”? The Georgia State Panthers take on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers in Sun Belt East action. 

These teams enter with a combined 5-1 record, with the only loss coming against Power Five UCLA. 

And it wasn’t even a bad loss! Coastal Carolina kept it close for three quarters before allowing two fourth-quarter touchdowns in a two-score loss. 

This is a fun, engaging mid-week Group of Five football game. 

That begs the question: What’s the best bet for this one? 

Georgia State is 105th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play allowed. The Panthers lost several key pieces from last year’s defense, including defensive backs Quavian White and Jeffery Clark. 

As expected, the fresh-faced Panthers secondary has struggled mightily against the pass, ranking 121st nationally in EPA per dropback allowed and 93rd in Pass Success Rate allowed. 

The numbers haven’t been against world-beating offenses, either, as the Panthers have played UConn, Charlotte and Rhode Island. The FCS-level Rams amassed more than 400 passing yards against Georgia State, a very bad sign.

That bodes poorly against uber-efficient Chanticleers’ quarterback, Grayson McCall, and a bevy of experienced skill-position weapons.

The Chants use a balanced offense predicated on successful rush plays and a consistent short-passing attack. McCall has run it to perfection during his years in Conway, boasting a career completion rate of more than 70 percent.

Also, new head coach Tim Beck is an offensive guru who has produced eight top-40 SP+ offenses during his 12 years as an FBS offensive coordinator. He’s the perfect guy to coordinate this unit.

I expect McCall, Beck and Co. to shred Georgia State’s secondary with short crossers and out routes, piecing together scoring drives via paper cuts.

Meanwhile, the Chanticleers rank 120th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed. That bodes poorly against Georgia State do-it-all dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger, who already has 800 passing yards and 200 rushing yards through three games this season. 

The Panthers rush the ball at the 21st-highest rate in FBS, about 57 percent of the time. They called rush more than 60 percent of the time last year, so expect Georgia State to ground and pound no matter what. 

I expect Coastal Carolina’s rush defense to improve as the season progresses, but I’m not ready to bet on that yet. The Chants allowed first-year FBS Jacksonville State to rush for more than 200 yards at a 50 percent Success Rate, so the metrics are concerning.

I think both offenses have good mismatches against the opposing defenses here. And I’m low on both defenses, anyway. 

So, I like the Over, which has been steamed in the markets.

For what it’s worth, the past two meetings between these teams have flown over the closing total. The Panthers and Chanticleers combined for 82 points in 2021 and 65 in 2022. 

Expect more of the same Thursday night and wager accordingly.

Over 63 (-110) | Play to Over 64.5 (-110, BetMGM)