There’s a reason why 200-plus legal Nevada sports books have never had a losing season booking football, and why they win between $75 million-$125 million annually on football wagers alone. The same winning pattern exits for the legal sports books now in 35 U.S. states.
At least 85 percent of NFL bettors bet favorites, and only one of 1,000 bettors wins money betting the NFL, which tells me that oddsmakers (who know this) inflate the line to attract equal betting on both teams.
The two best teams in the NFL last year were the Chiefs and Eagles, who finished a combined 28-6 straight up, but had a combined 15-19 regular-season record against the spread.
If you bet a favorite, you’re laying more points than you should, especially on the popular public teams. I expect NFL ’dogs to bark loudly again all season long as players are not adjusting to the 18-week grind.
Last year, all regular-season underdogs were 54 percent vs the spread (to break even, a bettor needs to average 52.4 percent ATS).
Here are my top tips for 2023:
They’ll be overhyped, have an inflated line and the public can’t wait to bet on them.
Last year, the Rams were 1-3 ATS, and in 2021, Tom Brady’s defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers were also 1-3 ATS out of the gate, combining for a two-year money-burning 2-6 spread record.
It’s a marquee Thursday night festive occasion (for the home team) that kicks off the new season. The commissioner is there, along with the fans and national media to acknowledge the defending Super Bowl champs. Their media-ignored opponent will play hard to avoid being embarrassed like a sacrificial lamb.
Last year, the Super Bowl LVI champion Rams, as two-point home underdogs, got creamed by the Bills, 31-10.
In 2021, Tom-pa Bay was a nine-point favorite and barely survived Dallas, 21-19, and was lucky to win the game.
Double your bet if they’re a road division underdog. Philadelphia, as a seven-point road favorite, routed the Giants, 48-22. In the rematch, even though the Giants rested all their starters for the start of the playoffs the following week, and Philadelphia needed the win to capture the No. 1 playoff seed, the Eagles struggled as 17-point home favorites to win, 22-16. All that glitters is not gold.
Last year, division road underdogs and division dogs were both 59 percent ATS. Both trends figure to continue in 2023. Don’t buck them, even if you make half as much as Roger Goodell.
In 2021, betting six-point-or-less road underdogs was a huge money-maker, averaging 64.5 percent ATS.
In 2022, NFL dogs of 3.5 points or more were 60 percent ATS.
Averaging 55 percent ATS is considered a very profitable year.
There’s a good reason they’re called teasers. They might look good, but your chances of beating them and making money aren’t. I will slightly contradict myself by pointing out that six-point two-team teasers do win if one teases a +1.5, +2 or +2.5 underdog up to +7.5, +8 or 8.5 or a 7.5, 8 or an 8.5 favorite down to 1.5, 2 or 2.5, because you capture key numbers.
Also don’t bet them, as more than one-third of a bookmaker’s profits come from them. Two-team parlays pay 2.6/1 (true odds are 3:1); three-team parlays pay 6/1 (true odds are 7/1) and four-team parlays pay 10/1 (true odds are 15/1). You have as much chance of beating parlays as there is of Giselle announcing on her Instagram page that she and Kim Jong Un have fallen in love.
The bookies post a new point spread for the second half. Always bet the team at halftime that you think will beat the opening line of the original game. For example, if a 6-7 point underdog is winning at halftime, take them again, as the odds are if they cover the original spread, they’ll also beat the halftime spread. Note that many times it’s very hard at halftime to predict who will cover the original line, in which case, pass on the halftime line.
Oddsmakers who underestimated them last year will adjust this year. The best teams in 2022 ATS were the Giants at 13-4 and Lions at 12-4-1.
They were 27-3 SU, but a miserable money-losing 11-19 ATS last year (36.6 percent). Houston, one of the NFL’s worst teams, was a double-digit underdog five times last year and covered four of the five (80 percent ATS), with two of those covers coming against the Super Bowl teams, the Eagles and Chiefs. The Texans’ only ATS double-digit loss last year was +14.5 at Miami, where they lost by 15. Hello!
Danny Sheridan has been handicapping football games nationally for 36 years. He provided the sports odds for USA Today for 30 years, and appears regularly on national TV, radio and in newspapers.