A month ago, everybody seemed hyped about Florida’s chances in the 2025 season and skeptical of Miami’s.
But things move fast in college football, and it’s now the Hurricanes’ bandwagon that is filled to the brim, while you’d be hard-pressed to find anybody who still believes that the Gators will find their way back out of a 1-2 hole.
No. 4 Miami (3-0) is a 7.5-point favorite over its in-state rival on Saturday night.
It’s fair to remain a little skeptical of Miami in the big picture. Don’t forget that the U started last season 9-0 before falling apart down the stretch.
Head coach Mario Cristobal seems to have a knack for getting his teams into great positions then surrendering them at the worst possible time.
But for right now, everything is clicking for Miami.
Carson Beck has been superb through four games, and his offensive line looks like it could do a job on Sundays.
Defensively, Miami has shown some cracks, though none that look fatal, but with the offense humming, there’s no real reason to fret.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ power rankings have Miami as the 10th-best team in the country right now, and the offense grades out No. 1 overall through three games.
Florida’s offense, on the other hand, has been dreadful.
After an encouraging start to his career as a freshman, DJ Lagway has struggled under center through three games, and that has stalled Florida’s season.
Perhaps Lagway finds his form, but that’s asking a lot in a high-pressure environment on Saturday night.
Florida’s defense has been better than the offense, but it’s not an elite unit, ranked No. 25 in SP+, with its main bugaboo being its habit of giving up big plays.
This looks like a classic buy-low, sell-high spot, but Florida has done nothing to give anybody any confidence that it can hang with the Hurricanes right now.
The Play: Miami -7.5 (FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.