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Sep 26, 2025  |  
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NextImg:Florida State vs. Virginia prediction: Odds, picks, best bet for Friday night’s ACC clash

Florida State wasted no time making a statement this season.

Not only did the Seminoles upset Alabama as 14-point underdogs in Week 1, but they blew out the Tide, 31-17, to immediately put themselves back on the college football map after going 2-10 in 2024.

It’s been relatively quiet around Florida State since that win, but that’s because of their schedule. Blowout wins over Kent State and East Texas A&M aren’t going to keep tongues wagging.

A win over Virginia on Friday night would get the hype machine fired back up again.

Florida State, Miami and Georgia Tech are taking up most of the oxygen in the ACC, but don’t overlook what Virginia has done through four games.

Head coach Tony Elliot went 11-23 in his first three seasons in Charlottesville, and the long-time Clemson assistant decided to revamp his roster through the transfer portal to save his job.

The early returns are promising.

Quarterback Chandler Morris, who has seemingly been playing college football for a decade, transferred in from North Texas to little fanfare.

Playing for his fourth school since 2020, nobody expected Morris to just click into gear with Virginia but that’s exactly what has happened.

The 24-year-old has completed 85 of 120 passes (70.8 percent) for 1,050 yards and eight touchdowns.

Virginia’s 310.3 passing yards per game is the 18th-highest mark in the country, and the Cavs rank seventh in FBS with 73 plays of at least 10 yards.

Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Squirrel White (4) reacts after making a catch.
Florida State’s Squirrel White celebrating. Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Overnight, Virginia has turned into an offensive buzzsaw.

Florida State’s offense has been prolific, too, but we can’t be too sure what to think about their defense.

The Seminoles held Alabama in check in Week 1, but there’s a chance that was an outlier performance from the Tide in some nasty weather. 

If I had to pick a side, I’d lean towards Virginia’s firepower to cover the seven-point spread, but the best value on the board is on the total.

Both of these offenses have an in-form quarterback backed up by plenty of skill, while both defenses still have questions to answer. It’s a high number, but this one should be a barnburner.

The Play: Over 59.5 (-115, FanDuel)

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.