Wednesday night’s game between the Winnipeg Jets and Calgary Flames is essentially a playoff game in the NHL tonight.

After falling to the Chicago Blackhawks on Tuesday night, Calgary is in a must-win spot on the road in Manitoba.

Not only do the Flames trail the Jets by two points in the race for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, but Winnipeg has clinched the tie-breaker over Calgary, meaning the Flames will need to pass the Jets to make the postseason. 

That means that anything short of a win – preferably in regulation – would all but end Calgary’s season. 

Let’s break it down.

(7:30 p.m. ET., ESPN+)

It’s been the same story for the Flames for almost the entire season.

Just when you think Calgary is rounding into form and about to take a leap, it stumbles.

That’s exactly what happened on Tuesday night when the Flames fell to the last-place Blackhawks, 4-3.

It was an inexcusable loss, but it was not surprising to anyone that’s followed this team this season.

Nor was the way in which they lost.

Calgary outshot Chicago 36-23 and had the advantage in expected goals, 4.1 to 2.8.

Those numbers suggest the Flames played the “better” game, but that’s not what matter this time of year — especially going up against an also-ran like Chicago. 

And it’s a familiar script for the Flames.

They’ve played plenty of games where they tilt the ice in the right direction only to come on the short end of the stick because of inconsistent goaltending or poor finishing.

According to Natural Stat Trick, Calgary has the third-best expected goals differential (5-on-5) in the NHL at +37.8, but their actual goal difference is +9. It’s just been that kind of season for the Flames.

But it’s not like the Jets are a picture of stability, either.

On Jan. 15, the Jets had a 29-14-1 record and looked like they’d contend for first place in the Central Division.

But Winnipeg has gone 14-17-2 since then and now finds itself in a precarious situation.

The Jets have won their last two games but lost their two prior to that, including one to San Jose.

In other words, you really have no idea what to expect from either of these teams.

But if you look at the numbers, you’d project this contest to follow a certain pattern.

Calgary’s biggest strength is its ability to drive play and tilt the ice at 5-on-5, but the Flames struggle to finish their chances.

That weakness may be on full display against Connor Hellebuyck, who ranks sixth in the NHL in save percentage and fifth in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). 

Winnipeg is not some offensive juggernaut, either, and even though the Jets should feel good about the goaltending mismatch with Dan Vladar set to start for Calgary, this is not a team that will typically put games away.

The Jets rank 17th in shooting percentage, 21st in goals per game, and 23rd in 5-on-5 goals scored this season. 

The Jets are a slight favorite at the time of writing, and that seems about right, so instead of backing a side on the two-way moneyline, I’ll zag a bit with a play on the game to go to overtime.

Calgary has played more overtime games than any team in the NHL this season, and it’s easy to see another one here with neither team likely to score a blowout.

60-minute draw (+340, Caesars)