The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have established themselves as one of the most consistent programs in the Group of 5 under Tyson Helton.

Since Helton took over in 2019, WKU has compiled three nine-win seasons, two eight-win campaigns, and one outlier five-win showing during the COVID-impacted 2020 season.

The Hilltoppers are well on their way to another impressive campaign, winning five of their first six games in 2025. One more win, and WKU will become bowl-eligible for the 11th time in the past 12 seasons.

The bookies like their chances to get there on Tuesday night. WKU is a 10-point favorite against Florida International in this midweek matchup.

FIU has also been consistent over the last half-dozen years. But unlike Western Kentucky, that consistency is not a good thing. The Panthers just can’t compete with the recruiting power of other programs in Florida, and that’s led to a 19-47 record since 2019, which was the last time that FIU went to a bowl game.

With games against Kennesaw State, Sam Houston State, Missouri State, and Middle Tennessee still to come, there is a chance that FIU ends its bowl drought after a 2-3 start, but that would likely require the Panthers to steal a game or two from either WKU, Liberty, or Jacksonville State.

And while the odds are stacked against them for their tussle with the Hilltoppers on Tuesday night in Bowling Green, there is reason to believe that FIU can keep this one competitive.

Western Kentucky’s offense is built to overwhelm you with its passing game behind Maverick McIvor, but the Panthers will counter with a strong secondary.

The numbers for FIU’s passing defense are skewed because they got run over by UConn, but they were without two of their starters in the backfield in that game, Brian Blades II and Shamir Sterlin, both of whom are expected back for Tuesday’s tilt in Kentucky.

The other nod towards FIU keeping this close is its ability to rack up big plays on the ground. Western Kentucky really struggles at stopping the run. They rank 130th in yards per rush and PFF grades them as the 123rd-best unit against the run in FBS.

If FIU leans into that edge, they should be able to put a scare into the Hilltoppers on Tuesday.

The Play: FIU +10 (-110, DraftKings)

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.