Inevitably, adjusting to injuries is a guessing game for sports bettors. When that athlete might be the sport’s most valuable player, then the variance of opinions is even wider.
Oddsmakers dislike injuries.
They prefer teams to face one another at full strength because the power ratings that calculate the point spread are quite accurate.
That’s because those power ratings are determined from statistics using a large sample size of games.
However, when a key player misses a game, the betting market lacks a complete set of data to accurately represent the short-handed team.
The Indiana Fever just lost their first game playing without superstar Caitlin Clark, who is out at least two weeks with a quad injury.
On Friday, they host what seems to be the league’s worst team in the Connecticut Sun as 10.5-point favorites.
I believe this is a good spot to back Indy, which absolutely needs a win to avoid falling too far down the standings during Clark’s absence. This is essentially a must-win game, all things considered.
Connecticut is 0-5 and has limited offensive firepower, averaging a league-low 71.8 ppg.
Veteran center Tina Charles is the leading scorer but at age 36, she has inconsistent efficiency. For example, she is a combined 7-for-26 in her two road games and was guarded by solid defensive centers.
The Fever will defend her with a similar force in Aliyah Boston.
The Sun’s other weapon is Marina Mabrey, but the sharpshooter is having difficulty finding her rhythm this season, likely due to the fact that she is a larger focal point of opposing defenses.
Mabrey’s status also is uncertain for the game.
Meanwhile, the Fever turned to Sydney Colson at point guard to replace Clark in the starting lineup. They started strong but the offense understandably lacked fluidity and they only shot 39.7% from the field. I expect a better performance as they also had another day of practice.
Indiana is well-coached with Stephanie White and has multiple All-Stars in Boston, Kelsey Mitchell and DeWanna Bonner.
There is just too much firepower, even without Clark, and the team should play desperate for a win.
I have a 45-38-1 ATS record in this Post sports section.
My next play is the Fever -11 against the Sun (-110, Caesars Sportsbook).
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.