We’ve always looked at the contrarian approach to daily fantasy sports much in the way we think pro teams should approach analytics: an incredibly useful option to help pick a particular when one isn’t obvious.
For example: A pitcher is lights out across the first six innings, you don’t need to automatically take him out because the analytics say so. The numbers should be used as a light in the dark guiding the way, rather than managers just blindly following a pre-chosen analytic path.
The Madman has this kind of relationship with the contrarian fantasy strategy. It has undeniable value: You go against the grain, thus stand to gain on a larger percentage of competitors. You go against the public, which is often wrong. Sometimes it involves having better research or finding a unique stat that gives you an edge.
What we don’t often do is be contrarian for the sake of being contrarian. And even when we do, it is often just to fade a popular pick we also like, for the sole purpose of roster diversification when fielding multiple entries.
However, choosing players isn’t the only realm to explore a contrarian approach. You can also swerve in basic roster construction.
There are some basic tenets of roster-building for a DFS tournament, including: Stack a quarterback and at least one of his pass catchers, use a player from the opposing team in that same game, use the defense/special teams from the same team as one of your chosen running backs, etc.
There are correlations between these players and positions that make such an approach make sense. So it is a good baseline from which to start. Unless … you want to do something different, unless you decide to be contrarian.
Maybe you like a QB, but his wide receivers are priced too high, or there are too many to choose from? It helps if this is a mobile QB who is a touchdown threat on the ground.
What if we have one that meets both those criteria? Plus, he is in a matchup against a Jets defense that will deter his normal share of DFS contest entires. That’s right, we start building this week’s DFS squad with Jalen Hurts ($8,200 at DraftKings).
We are determined to use a few players we know are going to be popular (Raheem Mostert, $6,400; Cooper Kupp, $9,000; T.J. Hockenson, $6,600), which prices us out of stacking an Eagles WR we like with Hurts.
We fill out this roster with some cheap options we like: D’Onta Foreman ($4,00), D.J. Chark Jr. ($,000), Trenton Irwin ($3,300) and Josh Downs ($4,100), saving room for a stout DST versus a backup Browns QB: 49ers ($4,000).
For this to work, we primarily will be rooting against huge days from popular players we aren’t using, and hoping no one game makes the scoreboard go haywire.
Even if the players we’re using aren’t really going against the grain, the manner is which we’ve assembled them is. Now we wait to see if against the grain will yield some green.
Matthew Stafford QB, Rams, vs. Cardinals (FanDuel $7,300/DraftKings $6,100)
The Madman thinks we are at the beginning of the Great Stafford Awakening. With Cooper Kupp back, Puka Nacua and a better offense all-around than we’ve seen from L.A. in a bit, a now a nice matchup versus the Cards.
Jeff Wilson Jr. RB, Dolphins, vs. Panthers (FD $5,000/DK $4,300)
He is expected to get limited reps in his return from a hip injury, but against a porous Carolina run defense, a few carries is all it could take for a good fantasy day. Note: Salvon Ahmed on radar as deep DFS option.
Chuba Hubbard RB, Panthers, at Dolphins (FD $5,500/DK $4,300)
With Miles Sanders sidelined, Hubbard should get most of the work. Without many other options, his role in the passing game should expand if trailing, as expected.
Christian Kirk WR, Jaguars, vs. Colts (FD $6,600/DK $5,400)
With Zay Jones expected out, Kirk becomes the unquestioned No. 2 option for Trevor Lawrence, against an exploitable Colts pass defense.
Brock Purdy QB 49ers, at Browns (FD $7,200/DK $5,600)
Fantasy managers might be eager to use the QB7 on the season, but the Browns’ defense has been incredibly stingy.
Saquon Barkley RB, Giants, at Bills (FD $8,000/DK $8,100)
We said last week we like Barkley as soon as he is back on the field from an ankle injury. But his limited practices, fact he isn’t fully cleared yet and now without his starting QB against a stout Buffalo defense, we’re not determined to start this week Barkley even if he plays.
Brian Robinson Jr. RB, Commanders, at Falcons (FD $6,700/DK $5,700)
The Falcons are the toughest defense against opposing fantasy RBs this season — allowing 8.4 fewer to RBs in PPR per week than the league average. Still like him long-term, but not this week.
Chris Olave WR, Saints, at Texans (FD $7,100/DK $6,600)
We’re not worried about Olave in a big-picture sense, but the fact remains the past two games were duds, and we think a third is on the way. The Texans are the fourth-stingiest versus fantasy WRs, and have given up just one WR touchdown all season.
Drew Loftis and Jarad Wilk submit dueling rosters into a DFS contest:
Site: DraftKings
Slate: Sun. main (11 games)
Type: $12 tourney
Top prize: $20K
Pot: $200K
QB: Jalen Hurts — Phil (at NYJ) $8,200
RB: Raheem Mostert — Mia (vs. Car) $6,400
RB: D’Onta Foreman — Chi (vs. Min) $4,400
WR: Cooper Kupp — LAR (vs. Ari) $9,000
WR: D.J. Chark Jr. — Car (at Mia) $4,000
WR: Trenton Irwin — Cin (vs. Sea) $3,300
TE: T.J. Hockenson — Min (at Chi) $6,600
Flex: Josh Downs — Ind (at Jac) $4,100
DST: 49ers — SF (at Cle) $4,000
QB: Justin Fields — Chi (vs. Min) $7,300
RB: Raheem Mostert — Mia (vs. Car) $6,400
RB: Kenneth Walker — Sea (at Cin) $6,700
WR: Drake London — Atl(vs. Was) $4,800
WR: DJ Moore — Chi (vs. Min) $6,500
WR: K.J. Osborn — Min (at Chi) $4,.400
TE: Logan Thomas — Was (at Atl) $3,500
Flex: Calvin Ridley — Jax (vs. Ind) $6,700
DST: Dolphins — Mia (vs. Car) $3,500
Season risked: $49
Season’s winnings: Drew $38, Jarad $9