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NY Post
New York Post
16 Sep 2023


NextImg:Fantasy football: Cryptic clues about starters put backup RBs in play

Yellow is the worst color in Trivial Pursuit. Or at least it was — back in the 1990s, at the zenith of its popularity, when the Madman was an historically ignorant 20-something, but before board game companies realized people had memories.

Yellow represented the history category, and we rarely knew any of those answers. We didn’t pay attention during history classes in our youth. But what we did learn over game after game of Trivial Pursuit was that one of the most frequently correct yellow answers was “The Bridge on the River Kwai.”

It didn’t matter the question — What year did World War I start? Who assassinated President Lincoln? What movie depicted POWs in the Pacific Theater of World War II? — our answer was always “The Bridge on the River Kwai.”

Every correct guess was considered a win, since we didn’t know the answer to almost any yellow questions. This practice produced more correct answers than would the combined total of blind guesses plus those answers we actually knew. It was a statistical gain.

So our Trivial Pursuit prosperity improved marginally not because of better information or data, but through the contrition of conditioning. And that was in a history realm in which there were myriad possible answers to any question.

Now, imagine the issue at play only had a few likely answers. For example: A player will play; or he won’t play; or he will play, but play poorly.

Green Bay running back Aaron Jones gets treatment on his hamstring before the Packers’ 38-20 win over the Bears.
Getty Images

When NFL players are dealing with issues like hamstring soreness, the midweek context clues can say a lot about what will become a player on game day. Like, when Aaron Jones leaves the field late in a game clutching his hamstring, as he did last week, we have been conditioned to assume he won’t play the next week, or if he does, won’t play as well, or as much. That scenario opens the door for other players.

We also have learned over the years that when coaches play coy with details involving an injury, especially when a player isn’t involved in practices, that too is a bad sign for their availability — as has been the case this week with Austin Ekeler.

We don’t have data regarding when a coach says this on Wednesday, then a player does that on Sunday. Our approach is completely based on what past experiences have taught us. And that conditioning says neither of these players will play.

Now, all that said, this isn’t an exact science — obviously — so stay up to date with the news, but you can still prep for what we consider the most likely outcome. 

That preparation has us using A.J. Dillon and Joshua Kelley. We expect both to absorb a large chunk of the workload. Neither matchup is great, but we’re not worried about matchups when we expect the type of volume we’re expecting.

Take our word for it. The Madman might still be historically ignorant, but we’re no longer a 20-something, and we have learned a little about fantasy football patterns along the way.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson

Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson
USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

He looked better than expected against the Jaguars. And the Colts aren’t good enough to run away and hide, even from the Texans, so Indy should play aggressively for much of the game.

Ton of volume last week, and now gets a defense that got shredded on the ground in its opener. A marginal improvement in yardage efficiency plus a score — both easily possible — and he delivers a big day.

We don’t expect De’Andre Hopkins (ankle) to play. NWI doubled the targets of Treylon Burks last week, and we expect him to led the way among Tennessee WRs in a juicy matchup against a vulnerable Chargers secondary.

George Pickens #14 of the Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers’ George Pickens
Getty Images

Diontae Johnson is going to miss time with a hamstring issue. Pickens might be a better WR. And not every team is going to make the Steelers’ offense look as bad as it did vs. the 49ers.

Last week was weird — he didn’t need to throw. But this week he faces a brutal defense that will be itching to prove the Jets are still a force without Aaron Rodgers. We’re not giving up on Dak, but we’re not playing him.

Los Angeles Rams running back Cam Akers

Rams running back Cam Akers
USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

Last week, this guy got 20-plus carries and scored a touchdown, yet didn’t even reach 10 fantasy points. That is an amazing degree of inefficiency. He has to play his way back into our lineup — but we’re expecting him to play his way onto our waiver wire.

We know, we know, the Jonathan Taylor void must be filled. But Deon Jackson isn’t going to disappear just because Moss is playing this week, and Richardson is going to remain a large part of the ground game.

This hurts, because his ceiling was so, so high. Without Aaron Rodgers, though, he is just a really, really good WR option. And against a top-tier defense that doesn’t fear the QB, maybe lose the “really, really.”

Site: FanDuel

Slate: Sun. main (12 games)

Type: $5 tourney 

Top prize: $1M

Pot: $2.5M

QB — Jared Goff (Det, vs. Sea) $7,300

RB — A.J. Dillon (GB, at Atl) $7,000

RB — Joshua Kelley (LAC, at Ten) $6,300

Los Angeles Chargers running back Joshua Kelley

Chargers running back Joshua Kelley
USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

WR — Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det, vs. Sea) $8,100

WR — Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Ten, vs. LAC) $5,400

WR —Calvin Ridley (Jac, vs. KC) $8,300

TE — Sam LaPorta (Det, vs. Sea) $5,100

Flex: DK Metcalf (Sea, at Det) $7,700

DEF — Broncos (Den, vs. Was) $4,700

QB — Jared Goff (Det, vs. Sea) $7,300

RB — James Cook (Buf, vs. LV) $6,600

RB — Jahmyr Gibbs (Det, vs. Sea) $5,800

WR — Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det, vs. Sea) $8,100

WR — Keenan Allen (LAC, at Ten) $7,800

WR — Nico Collins (Hou, vs. Ind) $6,200

TE — Logan Thomas (Was, at Den) $4,900

Flex — Calvin Ridley (Jac, vs. KC) $8,300

DEF — 49ers (SF, at LAR) $5,000

Season risked: $10

Season’s winnings: Jarad $0, Drew $0