Fantasy baseball managers routinely face the question: Should we believe in a player’s hot start, or is it a mirage destined to fade?
Two players lighting up box scores early this year — Spencer Torkelson of the Tigers and Ben Rice of the Yankees — offer compelling cases to examine. Both have turned heads this April, but their underlying profiles and team contexts may suggest different paths forward.
Torkelson, the former No. 1-overall draft pick, has long tantalized fantasy managers with his prodigious power potential. After a couple of uneven seasons, he is off to a blistering start, already launching bombs at a pace that evokes his 30-home-run campaign from 2023.
Yes, the strikeout rate remains high — hovering around 30 percent — but we’re not overly concerned, as Torkelson has made tangible changes to his mechanics and approach at the plate, and the results are showing.
This isn’t just blind optimism. His batted-ball data backs up the breakout. Torkelson’s average exit velocity and hard-hit rate have spiked, and he is pulling the ball in the air more consistently — a recipe for home run success at Comerica Park and beyond.
The adjustments he has made, reportedly flattening his swing path and staying more selective early in counts, have unlocked the raw power that made him a top prospect. Sure, the whiffs are a red flag for batting average, but in a fantasy landscape that increasingly prioritizes power, a .240 hitter with 35-plus homer upside is gold. If he maintains even 80 percent of this production, he is a top-10 first baseman by season’s end. We’re buying the hot start — strikeouts be damned.
Meanwhile in The Bronx, the rookie Rice has emerged as a Statcast darling, posting numbers that make sabermetric enthusiasts drool. His exit velocities, barrel rate and expected slugging percentage all sit in the elite percentiles — think top 5 percent across the board.
Rice has mashed his way into the Yankees’ lineup, capitalizing on injuries to Giancarlo Stanton and DJ LeMahieu with a barrage of extra-base hits. For fantasy managers who snagged him off the waiver wire, he has been fantastic, but is this sustainable?
You can believe in Rice’s bat. The underlying metrics are too pristine to dismiss as a fluke. He went 40-20 with a .285 average over 152 minor-league at-bats and has yet to really slow down in the majors. His plate discipline — low chase rates paired with a knack for hard contact — suggests a high floor, too.
The biggest question mark isn’t talent, but opportunity. Stanton and LeMahieu will be back, and the Yankees’ crowded lineup could squeeze Rice’s playing time. If he keeps raking, though, the Bombers might have no choice but to find him at-bats, perhaps shifting him to DH or first base. For now, ride the hot hand — he is too good to bench.
Hot starts are tricky, but Torkelson’s mechanical overhaul and Rice’s elite Statcast profile give us confidence. Believe in both — just keep an eye on the Yankees’ depth chart..
Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy baseball news and advice.