Aaron Civale is a name you’ve heard before. There is a good chance you’ve targeted him in drafts or used him as a streamer at some point since his debut with Cleveland in 2019.
His is a name you know, but not necessarily one you trust … until now, because Roto Rage believes Civale can be a key part of your rotation in 2024. Best part: He’s cheap — approximately an 18th-round pick in 12-team leagues or, maybe, $4 at auction.
In 13 starts with the Guardians last year, Civale was 5-2 with a 2.34 ERA, 1.039 WHIP, 2.6 walks per nine innings and 19 percent strikeout rate.
In early August, Civale was traded to Tampa Bay — where the righty went 2-3 with a 5.36 ERA, 1.368 WHIP, 2.2 walks per nine innings and a 29 percent strikeout rate in 10 starts.
Civale had the 17th-worst ERA over his 13-game stretch with the Rays, but his FIP (3.63) and xFIP (3.26) show he was unlucky. In addition to limiting free passes, his strikeout rate (11.5 per nine) soared, matching Tarik Skubal and Blake Snell. His strikeout-walk rate also improved, another good sign.
His strikeout numbers increased as he decreased the usage of his four-seamer, upped the usage of his sinker and continued to baffle with his curve (he had a 60 percent strikeout rate with the pitch in September).
Those numbers appear promising, but ultimately it is a small sample size from a pitcher who never has met expectations. There are so many hurlers out there with the same story, including one Roto Rage touted over and over last year: Zach Eflin.
Before 2023, Eflin was a middling, oft-injured pitcher for the Phillies who went 36-45 with a 4.49 ERA and pitched more than 128 innings just once from 2016-22. At age 29, and in his first season with the Rays, he finished sixth in Cy Young voting after posting career best marks in wins, ERA, walk rate, innings, opponents average, swinging-strike rate and WHIP.
In five seasons with Cleveland, Civale was an average, oft-injured pitcher who went 29-23 with a 3.77 ERA and pitched more than 100 innings in a season only once. Wanna guess how old will Civale be turning in June? (Hint from Captain Obvious: The same age Eflin was last year.)
Let’s take this comparison one step further, focusing on one pitch both used more than 20 percent of the time last year: the curveball.
Throughout Eflin’s career, opponents have hit .200 with a 16.6 swinging-strike rate against his curveball. He threw it 26.5 percent of the time in 2023, up from 20.1 percent in 2022; 10.8 percent in 2021; and 2.6 percent in 2016. Opponents hit .183 against it in 2023 with a 37.4 percent strikeout rate and 18.3 percent swinging-strike rate.
Civale has held opponents to a .183 average against his curve with a 16.4 percent swinging-strike rate. It is a pitch he used 24.5 percent of the time last year and opponents hit .188 against it with a 32.4 percent whiff rate.
Being in Tampa Bay is also a godsend. Did you know the Rays have not finished outside of the top five in team ERA since 2018, when they ranked sixth?
Civale doesn’t throw the ball particularly hard, nor is he the sexiest name available in your drafts. He does, however, have an average draft position of 217.5, according to Fantasy Alarm, which makes him an affordable option with a ton of upside — especially with the Rays’ ability to get the most out of their pitchers.
Don’t sleep on Civale!
A look at some other sleeper-caliber pitchers to target late in drafts:
Baltimore lefty John Means (258.6 ADP)) will start the season on the IL, but Roto Rage will gladly stash a pitcher who rarely issues walks (1.5 per nine for his career), owns a 3.65 ERA from 2019-23 and plays on a loaded Orioles squad.
In addition his 25.6 percent strikeout rate and .220 opponents average, Boston’s Kutter Crawford (261.88) also had a 12.5 percent swinging-strike rate and an xERA (3.25) that was nearly a full point lower than his actual ERA (4.04). In his first three outings this spring, he has allowed one run over eight innings while striking out seven and walking none. Yes, please!
Among pitchers who threw a minimum of 90 innings, Miami’s Edward Cabrera (270.48) had the 16th best strikeouts per nine and the 17th-best opponents average. He also had the second-worst walks per nine in that span, and even writing about him probably made his right shoulder impingement worse (he is injury prone). If he can stay healthy and keep the walks in check, he is a great late-round steal.
Luis Severino (278.25) is coming off an awful, injury-plagued (what else is new?) season with the Yankees. He has looked great in spring training for the Mets, even if the games mean about as much as medical advice from a toddler. The two-time All-Star is still just 30 years old and went 42-18 with a 3.10 ERA, 10.5 strikeouts per nine and a 1.064 WHIP from 2017-22. He is a low-cost/high-reward pitcher.
Washington’s MacKenzie Gore (290.83) has not (yet) lived up to the hype of being the third-overall pick in the 2017 draft. That being said, he is just 25. Among pitchers who tossed a minimum of 130 innings, the lefty ranked 21st in strikeout rate (26 percent) and 26th in swinging-strike rate (12.1 percent) last year. He also reduced his walk rate from 12 percent to 9.8 percent. The fact he could be one of your last picks, if not your last pick, is insane.
A.J. Puk (324.23) has never started a game in the majors, nor had he ever pitched more than 66 ¹/₃ innings in a season. He has struck out 11.2 per nine innings in his four-year career and limited opponents to a .235 average. Last year, he had a 3.97 ERA (3.04 xERA, 3.02 xFIP) while striking out 12.4 per nine innings. Opposing hitters had a .238 average against him. He is currently slotted in as a member of the Marlins’ rotation and has struck out 42.9 percent of the batters he has faced while not allowing a run this spring. With his current price, he is about as low-risk as you can get.
- Spencer Strider, Atl
- Corbin Burnes, Bal
- Zack Wheeler, Phi
- Zac Gallen, Ari
- George Kirby, Sea
- Kevin Gausman, Tor
- Luis Castillo, Sea
- Framber Valdez, Hou
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto, LAD
- Tyler Glasnow, LAD
- Max Fried, Atl
- Pablo Lopez, Min
- Logan Webb, SF
- Aaron Nola, Phi
- Freddy Peralta, Mil
- Tarik Skubal, Det
- Logan Gilbert, Sea
- Bobby Miller, LAD
- Tanner Bibee, Cle
- Eury Perez, Mia
- Grayson Rodriguez, Bal
- Dylan Cease,SD
- Merrill Kelly, Ari
- Zach Eflin, TB
- Blake Snell, FA
- Joe Ryan+Min
- Sonny Gray+StL
- Cole Ragans +KC
- Joe Musgrove+SD
- Justin Steele+ChC
- Jesus Luzardo+ Mia
- Michael King+SD
- Chris Bassitt+Tor
- Yu Darvish+SD
- Shane Bieber, Cle
- Jordan Montgomery, FA
- Walker Buehler, LAD
- Cristian Javier, Hou
- Gavin Williams, Cle
- Nathan Eovaldi, Tex
- Ryan Pepiot, TB
- Carlos Rodon, NYY
- Bailey Ober, Min
- Gerrit Cole, NYY
- Brandon Pfaadt, Ari
- Braxton Garrett, Mia
- Mitch Keller, Pit
- Bryce Miller, Sea
- Justin Verlander+Hou
- Hunter Greene+Cin
- Kodai Senga, NYM
- Shota Imanaga, ChC
- Brandon Pfaadt, Ari
- Aaron Civale, TB
- Nick Pivetta, Bos
- Marcus Stroman, NYY
- Michael Wacha, KC
- Jose Berrios, Tor
- Kenta Maeda,Det
- Kyle Bradish,Bal
- John Means, Bal
- Andrew Abbott, Cin
- Hunter Brown, Hou
- Chris Sale, Atl
- Eduardo Rodiguez, Ari
- Bryan Woo, Sea
- Charlie Morton, Atl
- Clarke Schmidt, NYY
- Louie Varland, Min
- Cristopher Sanchez, Phi
- Nestor Cortes, NYY
- Brayan Bello, Bos
- Taijuan Walker, Phi
- Jameson Taillon, ChC
- Taj Bradley, TB
- Jacob deGrom, Tex
- Griffin Canning, LAA
- Tyler Wells, Bal
- Triston McKenzie, Cle
- Miles Mikolas, Stl
- Lance Lynn, Stl
- Jon Gray, Tex
- Logan Allen, Cle
- Edward Cabrera, Mia
- Kyle Gibson, Stl
- Reese Olson, Det
- Seth Lugo, KC
- MacKenzie Gore, Was
- Kutter Crawford, Bos
- Javier Assad, ChC
- Tyler Anderson, LAA
- Martin Perez, Pit
- Bryce Elder, Atl
- Yusei Kikuchi, Tor
- A.J. Puk, Mia
- Clayton Kershaw, LAD
- Hyun Jin Ryu, FA
- Sean Manaea, NYM
- Sawyer Gipson-Long, Det
- J.P. France, Hou
- Steven Matz, Stl
- Ranger Suarez, Phi
- JP Sears, Oak
- Andrew Heaney, Tex
- Shane Baz,TB
- Zack Littell,TB
- Dean Kremer, Bal
- Jose Quintana, NYM
- Patrick Sandoval, LAA
- Garrett Whitlock, Bos
- Drew Smyly, ChC
- Max Scherzer, Tex
- Matt Strahm, Phi
- Ken Waldichuk, Oak
- Reid Detmers, LAA
- Keaton Winn, SF
- Emmet Sheehan, LAD
- Roansy Contreras, Pit
- Nick Lodolo, Cin
- Ryan Yarbrough, LAD
- Adrian Houser, NYM
- Anthony DeSclafani, Min
- Frankie Montas, Cin
- Jose Urquidy, Hou
- Reynaldo Lopez, Atl
TEAM NAME OF THE WEEK
A Hung Drury