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Action Network’s Billy Ward breaks down his best bet for the biggest card of the year:
“Given the tumultuous past few years of the light heavyweight division, I guess we shouldn’t be surprised that Jiri Prochazka’s bid to reclaim the title he never lost ended in (mild) controversy last November.
Prochazka was competing with current champion and UFC 300 headliner Alex Pereira in his first fight back from a significant shoulder injury. After winning the first round, he ate a left hook, shot for a takedown, and then collapsed following a series of elbows from Pereira.
At least that’s what Marc Goddard saw. Based on Prochazka’s immediate protests following the stoppage, he might’ve just slipped and fell awkwardly.
Either way, in a slightly different universe, Prochazka (-112) is defending his title in the main event on Saturday. Instead, he’s on the prelims against Alexander Rakic (-108).
Rakic is returning from an injury of his own, a torn ACL nearly two years ago against Jan Blachowicz. That could be a big factor here since the easiest path to victory against the awkward Prochazka is by flattening his tires with leg kicks.
Rakic’s injury seemed to be at least partially caused by Blachowicz repeatedly checking his kicks, and he could be reluctant to go back to that well. There are other stylistic difficulties too, including Rakic’s typical reliance on his reach advantage – which he won’t have over Prochazka.
The other flaw I noticed when breaking down tape on Rakic is his tendency to drop his right hand on the follow-through from his punches. Normally he gets away with that by keeping the distance, raising his guard once his opponent gets in close.
That’s not a good plan against the longer Prochazka, whose awkward striking angles can surprise opponents when they feel like they’re in a position of safety.
The combination of the styles involved and the injury factor on Rakic is enough for me to take Prochazka even with the line moving his way this week. I’d bet him down to -120 or so, after which I’d look for his inside-the-distance odds as an alternative”.
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