To the untrained eye, the NBA MVP seems like a foregone conclusion.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder is a -500 favorite at both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The season is past the midpoint, and OKC is vying for the league’s best record with SGA leading the league in scoring.
That formula typically produces the MVP, especially when the other main candidate(s) has already won the award multiple times. Like it or not, a star’s emergence and voter fatigue often play major roles.
The betting odds for awards are “fake markets”, as NBC lead sports betting analyst Jay Croucher once hilariously yet accurately told me. Oddsmakers are truly guessing how humans will vote, while monitoring media interviews and various narratives as faux data points. It’s not just about the performance of a player or team.
Gilgeous-Alexander is the understandable favorite but I believe the odds are too skewed.
Nikola Jokic is the second favorite at +360 oods, but I also think Giannis Antetokounmpo has a better shot than his 50/1 odds indicate.
A couple weeks ago, Gilgeous-Alexander moved from -500 to -320, before moving back to his current price of -500. The only thing that happened was that Jokic had a run of five straight triple-doubles, before an SGA game-winner propelled him back to -500 odds.
These odds are incredibly reactionary and move for bizarre reasons. By comparison, it would take a major injury for a moneyline on an actual game to swing that drastically. Yet, oddsmakers casually adjusted as though a January performance will still resonate when votes are submitted in mid-April.
SGA is certainly a worthy MVP, if that’s what transpires. However, Jokic is widely considered the league’s best player and is averaging a triple-double with 29.6 points, 12.8 rebounds and 10.1 assists with career-highs in points, assists, steals, minutes, 3-pointers and 3-point percentage.
“Jokic is mind-boggling how he can post better numbers than previous MVP seasons but there is a strong possibility that voter fatigue will finally catch up to him,” SuperBook head NBA oddsmaker Jeff Sherman told Only Players via text. “SGA holds a strong position as a healthy favorite, mainly due to the Thunder’s dominance in the West.”
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | -500 |
| Nikola Jokic | +360 |
| Giannis Anterokounmpo | 50/1 |
Ten days ago, The Athletic Senior NBA Writer Sam Amick posted on X that the award being considered a “two-man race is absurd.” I replied to his comment, sharing Antetokounmpo’s long-shot odds.
“I’m a voter. And no one from Vegas has called to get my opinion,” Amick replied back to me on X.
ESPN’s Tim Bontemps conducts three MVP straw polls throughout each season that have gained popularity the past couple years and even move betting markets. After all, he consults actual voters. I reached out for comment and he declined.
In his initial Dec. 20 poll, Jokic drew 57 of the 100 first-place votes. Gilgeous-Alexander had 24 and Antetokounmpo had 19. I question how much has really changed but we will likely learn around mid-February, which is when his second installment usually posts.
Sherman shared that he would make the odds for both Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic at -110, if voter fatigue were not part of the equation with Jokic as a three-time MVP.
We actually just saw a similar scenario in the NFL. The MVP odds suggested the race is down to two quarterbacks. Like Jokic, Lamar Jackson is the reigning award-winner and was the second favorite behind Josh Allen, whose team had a better record and has yet to win the MVP – much like SGA.
However, Jackson recently earned All-Pro honors ahead of Allen, and it’s the same 50 Associated Press voters that decide the NFL MVP. And thus, Jackson is believed to be the new front runner, and we will learn those results Saturday night in New Orleans.
As Gilgeous-Alexander faces Antetokounmpo on Monday in an NBA Cup rematch, the game’s outcome will not decide the trophy. However, I do think this race will encounter a few curveballs down the stretch. After all, it’s much more of a guessing game than any other market.
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.