Midweek MACtion continues Wednesday night with three games that offer plenty of intrigue.
Here’s a short summary of each game with some betting picks. Let’s dive in.
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kent State | +30.5 (-108) | +3500 | o47.5 (-108) |
| Miami | -30.5 (-112) | -20000 | u47.5 (-112) |
Kent State has completely bottomed out at this point of the season, hitting 0-9 on the year after a disastrous 41-0 home loss to Ohio last week.
It’s unclear where the bottom of the market is for this team that ranks 134th out of 134 FBS teams in net adjusted EPA/play.
It’s going to be an uphill battle to put points on the board against Miami, which ranks 38th in defensive EPA.
The RedHawks are one of four teams in the MAC with a 4-1 conference record, and they should be able to coast to a win here to keep their conference championship game aspirations alive.
Look for quarterback Brett Gabbert and running back Keyon Mozee to piece up this awful Kent State defense that ranks 133rd in success rate.
Recommendation: Lean Miami (Ohio) -30.5 (-112, DraftKings)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Akron | +14 (-108) | +440 | o44.5 (-112) |
| Northern Illinois | -14 (-112) | -600 | u44.5 (-108) |
My favorite MACtion bet of last week was on Northern Illinois to beat Western Michigan and it came through with a huge victory.
The Huskies have had an up-and-down year, but now fully healthy on offense, they look to put their four one-score losses in the rearview mirror.
Quarterback Ethan Hampton and wide receiver Trayvon Rudolph should post big numbers against an Akron defense ranked 122nd in EPA/pass allowed.
Akron is coming off a much needed bye week following its disappointing loss to Buffalo, and the Zips have suffered from some brutal turnover luck with a -11 turnover margin for the season.
The Zips still have a brutal offensive line, however, that ranks bottom seven in pass and run-blocking per PFF.
That has made it near impossible to sustain drives this year.
The Akron defense ranks 115th in points per drive allowed and 111th in defensive success rate. I believe we see another big performance from the Huskies’ offense in this one.
Recommendation: Bet Northern Illinois team total Over 30.5 points (-105, DraftKings)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Michigan | +11 (-108) | +320 | o50.5 (-112) |
| Ohio | -11 (-112) | =410 | u50.5 (-108) |
Ohio came through with a dominant showing last week in a 41-0 win over Kent State and the Bobcats will look to keep it rolling here.
Despite returning production concerns for Tim Albin’s team, Ohio is 4-1 in conference play and in strong contention for the conference championship.
It starts with a dominant run defense that ranks 24th in EPA/play allowed, setting it up to stymie opponents on third down with the 29th-ranked success rate.
Eastern Michigan likely will struggle to score against that defense, especially against an offensive line that has shuffled in different combinations and often looked overwhelmed.
The bye week could benefit the Eagles, but it’s still difficult to envision them moving the ball consistently against an Ohio defense that ranks 40th in points per drive allowed.
Recommendation: Lean Eastern Michigan team total Under 20.5 (-160, DraftKings)
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.