While there’s no traditional Cinderella in this year’s NCAA Tournament, teams like Clemson and North Carolina State have made unexpected runs to the Elite Eight — and possibly further.
There’s just five games left in the 2023-24 season, highlighted by Sunday’s quarterfinals.
Here’s how I’m betting Duke-North Carolina State:
This has been a magical run for North Carolina State, but personally, I believe it ends here.
The Wolfpack have played some great basketball, there’s no denying that.
But this is also a team that has benefitted from opponents’ inability to finish open shots.
Take a look at how ShotQuality graded N.C. State’s win over Marquette.
The Golden Eagles were projected to win that game by 16 points!
But it was almost as if I sat on the 3-point line, chucking away clank after clank. Marquette finished 4 of 31 (16%) from 3.
It took an overtime game with mid-major Oakland and Texas Tech to also struggle from the perimeter (7 of 26, 22.6%) for the Wolfpack to make this Elite Eight run.
I don’t want to take away from what has gone on, but there’s some reasoning behind the madness.
No one can hit a shot against them. Open or not. That is until Sunday.
Duke was a 9.5-point favorite a couple weeks again in the ACC Tournament before N.C. State won en route to its magical championship run.
To me, not much has changed, minus the public perception of the Wolfpack.
So to get the Blue Devils at (-6.5) is a buy for me.
Since March 1, Duke ranks as the No. 3 team in the country, per Bart Torvik.
The Blue Devils sit behind juggernaut Connecticut and Houston, which they just beat sans Jamal Shead. They are top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in that span.
Duke has the shooters to make North Carolina State pay for its defensive woes.
The Wolfpack rank outside the top 140 in both 2-point and 3-point defense, and are 74th in defensive efficiency this past month, per Torvik.
This is a team that doesn’t force many turnovers and is average on the glass.
There’s an overreliance on players like DJ Burns and DJ Horne to create on the offensive end, making up for the lack of defense.
Or, you know, opponents can miss every open shot from the perimeter.
But I trust the veteran leadership of Jeremy Roach and the perimeter firepower of Jared McCain and Tyrese Proctor to get the job done.
The public has been showing a lot of love for North Carolina State, so I’m willing to zag with the far superior team in Duke on Sunday.