Among ACC-SEC challenge games, this should be the most entertaining. 

Duke and Arkansas love to run the floor and play fast. There are high-level athletes spread all over the floor, including an All-American big man in Kyle Filipowski. 

The Razorbacks need a win. They’ve dropped three of their past four, including a gross home loss to UNC Greensboro. 

This is a desperation spot for Arkansas, and Eric Musselman is known to come through in these moments. 

I’m betting Muss rallies the troops at home in the biggest game of the year and gets his Hogs back on track Wednesday night. 

From an on-the-court perspective, it’s hard to see Arkansas keeping up with Duke, especially without Tramon Mark (back injury), whose isolation scoring has been monumental for the Hogs. 

That said, the situational spot screams Hogs. 

Duke has won four straight since a tough loss to Arizona, but three of those games have come against KenPom sub-200 college basketball teams (Bucknell, La Salle, Southern Indiana), and they failed to cover big spreads in two of those matches.

The Blue Devils are a tad inflated in the market and due for a letdown game.

Meanwhile, the Hogs are desperate for a win, and their consecutive losses have come against two KenPom top-40 teams (Memphis, North Carolina).

This is also their first game back at home after playing the Battle 4 Atlantis. 

They’ve also been a tad unlucky, as ShotQuality projects the Hogs with a 5-2 record based on the “quality” of shots taken and allowed, as opposed to their actual 4-3 record. 

So, this is the ultimate bounce-back spot. 

And just as the Blue Devils are inflated in the markets, the Razorbacks are undervalued. 

KenPom projects Duke as a three-point road favorite, ShotQualityBets projects Duke as a two-point road favorite and BartTorvik projects this game as a Pick’Em. 

There’s value in Arkansas as a two-possession underdog. 

I hope the Razorbacks’ pick-and-roll heavy offense can take advantage of Duke’s lackluster ball-screen defense – the Blue Devils rank slightly below the D-I average in pick-and-roll PPP allowed (0.77). 

And, hopefully, other transfers will step up in Mark’s stead. 

Louisville transfer El Ellis has been quiet since arriving in Fayetteville, so this could be his breakout party. 

Similarly, Devo Davis has only been scoring eight points per game, and he could pop off alongside Ellis. 

Also, Duke has been a slow starter this year, getting down early against even the worst opponents. Southern Indiana led by 10 late in the first half in the Devils’ last game.

A slow start could avalanche into an insurmountable lead in a raucous Bud Walton arena. 

No matter the reasons, I must bet Arkansas here because of the buy-low situational spot. 

For what it’s worth, Musselman has fared well as a home ‘dog during his coaching career. He’s only been in that spot four times, but he’s covered three straight with outright wins over Auburn (2/8/22) and UNLV (with Nevada, 1/23/16).

Arkansas +5 (-110) at BetRivers | Play to +3 (-110)