I’m not sure what’s happening here — what it is ain’t exactly clear. But there’s one thing I know for sure.
Whatever it is, it isn’t David Stearns’ fault.
Stearns’ Mets were an almost unthinkable 22-31 after blowing another lead late and losing 5-2 in 10 innings at Citi Field to the Dodgers in game one of a doubleheader. That keeps the Mets between the rebuilding Nationals and the fire-selling Marlins in an NL East that’s all but unwinnable now.
So it’s no surprise folks are saying Stearns is just a small-market GM, or worse. None of it is close to fair or true. This isn’t his team, about 90 percent of it isn’t (more on that calculation below). This isn’t his mess.
The Mets’ baseball president was given ample opportunity (by me and others) to pile on about the terribleness that preceded him in his once-a-homestand state of the Mets interview session, and to his credit, he didn’t take the opportunity. He painted an accurate portrayal of their reality — “we haven’t played well enough … we haven’t played like a playoff team” — but he didn’t point fingers (truth be told, he has barely enough fingers per previous faux pas).
And since he didn’t, we will have to do the dirty work. (More on the many mistakes below.)
Before anyone trashes Stearns, let’s examine how he’s doing so far.
His biggest winter deal went to Sean Manaea, who got $28 million over two years and can opt out after this year, which he probably will do. Manaea has pitched like No. 3 starter at worst, which at today’s prices makes him a relative bargain.
He spent $13 million on Luis Severino, the talented long-time Yankee and self-described “worst pitcher” in the bigs last year, and he’s been dominant at times.
He spent $8.5 million on Harrison Bader, and Bader is bringing sterling defense in center and extremely clutch hitting, especially by Mets standards. One could quibble and say Stearns could have waited and found a cheaper center fielder (Michael A. Taylor went for half that later), but Bader is a worthwhile sign.
Stearns allocated $2 million to Jorge Lopez, who’s been a bullpen plus (before losing Tuesday’s first game in the 10th on a Mookie Betts go-ahead single and Freddie Freeman two-run homer).
The only deal of consequence that hasn’t produced much is the trade Stearns made with his former Brewers team. Tyrone Taylor is solid but he’s Bader lite, and original rotation mate Adrian Houser had to be demoted to the bullpen.
Overall, that’s an excellent record. The real issue is what Stearns is inherited — enormous bills and a sorry tax situation.
Before Stearns arrived, almost exactly $1 billion in multiyear contracts were handed out to players Steve Cohen’s still paying. Yes, that’s billion with a B.
The largesse went to future Hall of Famers and frenemies (Max Scherzer $130 million, Justin Verlander $86.7 million), an All-Star shortstop (Francisco Lindor $341 million), an All-Star outfielder (Starling Marte $78 million), a potential ace (Kodai Senga $75 million), a former batting champion (Jeff McNeil $50 million), a star on the rise (Brandon Nimmo $162 million) and a fellow who must be a champion negotiator (James McCann $42 million), plus a trio of relative cheapies — Eduardo Escobar ($20 million), Jose Quintana ($28 million) and Omar Narvaez ($15 million).
Most of the deals made varying degrees of sense at the time, though none of them look like a bargain today. Ask yourselves this: Do any of these players regret signing?
The one for McCann is especially perplexing in that he was backup before the Mets rushed in. The Mets probably should have signed J.T. Realmuto.
The pre-Stearns Mets actually called Realmuto and suggested they’d pay “about $125 million” if he went early, but to his camp it seemed too quick. He wound up signing for $115.5 million. Perhaps he was one guy who preferred to be in Philadelphia. (If so, you can’t blame him the way things have turned out.)
The players who did sign are better than their numbers, which brings hope better days are ahead. Nimmo has been especially unlucky as a lot of his hard-hit balls are somehow finding gloves. His expected batting numbers are actually excellent (he’s 10th in expected wOBA at .398 and 25th in hard-hit percentage at 49.6), though that isn’t doing that much good at the moment.
Lindor brings very good defense, he posted a 30-30 season last year and is an upbeat presence in the clubhouse. But he isn’t living up to his contract, and it’s not helpful to have a .210 hitter batting third or first.
McNeil hasn’t been the same player since signing. There was a thought in the organization at the time that he’d be even better once the shift was outlawed, and he may be the one player where the opposite appears true.
Stearns said these are “quality players” with “track records” and expects that when we all look up at the end of the year they’ll be having seasons they, we and everyone else expects.
Maybe so, but before Stearns led the baseball operation, a case could be made that there was only one deal that looks like a bargain today. That may be the near-record deal for about $50 million guaranteed (plus incentives) that went to Stearns himself.