Trying to fade the Dodgers’ James Paxton and the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin last week didn’t work out so well, as both pitchers combined to give up just one run in the first five innings of an over bet of 5.5.
However, the result in that game shouldn’t change our stance on Paxton.
On Sunday, Corbin got torched in Miami, and I’ll bet Paxton has a similarly dreadful outing Monday night in Arizona as well.
Let’s dig into the reasons why and make a pick for the series opener between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks.
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | -130 | -1.5 (+110) | o10 (-115) |
| Diamondbacks | +110 | +1.5 (-130) | u10 (-105) |
The Dodgers are a strong defensive team once again, and they have more accurate intel on how to align fielders for each batter than most other organizations.
Still, the luck Paxton has had on hard-hit balls not getting down for hits in key moments is not sustainable.
The Nationals owned a .318 xBA last Tuesday versus Paxton. They struck out only once and walked three times.
Paxton has now been been hard-hit 49.2% of the time this season, and owns a shockingly poor SO/W ratio of only 0.65.
His stuff rates out horribly (Stuff+ rating of 74), and his command has also been concerning. He has walked six of the 20 batters he’s faced with runners in scoring position this season, but he continues to escape jams with timely line-outs.
It’s not as if he’s faring well when he’s actually in the strike zone, either. Batters have hard-hit 53% of his pitches inside the strike zone.
Batter-friendly Chase Field should also make it even tougher for Paxton to get outs on hard-hit balls at the rate we have seen this season.
The Dodgers own the best splits in the league versus left-handed pitching (124 wRC+, .793 OPS) and should continue such dominance moving forward.
They get a solid target in Tommy Henry, who owns a 5.55 ERA and should finish the year with an ERA in the mid fours.
Henry owns an xERA of 5.19 and an xFIP of 3.82. He owns a Stuff+ rating of 82. He has also allowed a .405 batting average at Chase Field this season.
We should see both starters struggle to get outs in this one. There is value betting over 5.5 runs in the first five innings.