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NY Post
New York Post
5 Oct 2023


NextImg:Do the Islanders have two great scoring lines? The answer may decide their season

On the ice from Long Island

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Here is a somewhat arbitrary question that piqued my curiosity after Kyle Palmieri returned to practice on Wednesday: How often in recent years have the Islanders had two legitimate, high-end scoring lines?

There are a lot of ways to measure this, none of them especially good. But Natural Stat Trick has stats by line going back to 2007-08, allowing a solid research attempt.

I wanted to know how many Islanders lines since then had played over 300 minutes — approximately 30 games — while scoring more than 50 percent of both expected and actual goals and how many times the Islanders had more than one such line in a season.

The answers: 16 total lines and three years with two or more.

Now, there are obvious flaws in this methodology. Plenty of good lines play fewer than 300 minutes together. Plenty of high-scoring lines are bad at defense, so they score fewer than 50 percent of goals. Plenty of low-scoring lines are great at defense, so they score more than 50 percent of goals.

The Identity Line of Matt Martin, Casey Cizikas and Cal Clutterbuck, for example, fit the criteria in three different seasons, and that is nobody’s idea of a scoring line. This is not meant to be perfect. But it is meant to be instructive.

New York Post
New York Post

The last time the Islanders had two primarily scoring lines — which is to say lines other than Martin-Cizikas-Clutterbuck — fitting this rubric was back in 2018-19. That season, oh by the way, accounted for the Islanders’ best regular-season points finish since 1983-84, with 103.

Three different lines finished that season with more than 400 minutes(!), over 50 percent of expected goals and over 50 percent of actual goals: Anders Lee, Brock Nelson and Jordan Eberle; Anthony Beauvillier, Mathew Barzal and Josh Bailey; and the Identity Line.

This team looks equipped to have its top two lines, at least, cross the 300-50-50 watermark, and whether or not they ultimately do will go a long way toward determining how far this team goes.

Now that Palmieri is back, it looks fairly certain he will slot in alongside Nelson and Pierre Engvall on opening night — mostly because breaking up the trio after the way it played at the end of last season would be highly inadvisable.

It is not so clear who will play on the left side of Bo Horvat on the top line, but it is obvious Barzal will be on his right.

The Islanders appear intent on keeping the Pierre Engvall, Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri trio together after their strong finish as a unit last season.
NHLI via Getty Images

General manager Lou Lamoriello has not been so loud about it, but he has placed a heavy bet on this working. Barzal, a franchise player, has shifted to the wing in the first of an eight-year deal. Engvall, an under-the-radar deadline acquisition last season, signed for seven seasons. Horvat was the team’s highest-profile acquisition since Lamoriello became the GM.

Any scenario that involves the Islanders being serious contenders this season must include two things: Ilya Sorokin continuing his otherworldly run in goal and the top two lines clicking.

Of course, there is no guarantee the top six’s ceiling will come to fruition. Engvall has not been entrusted with such a role before. Barzal and Horvat have not had many real games together, and it is not clear who their left winger will be. Palmieri must stay healthy. Nelson must keep up his scoring pace from the past two seasons — which has far outstripped the numbers he put up in his 20s.

Still, the potential is there, and it has not been lately. Lee, Nelson and Anthony Beauvillier were in the 300-50-50 club last season, but Beauvillier was traded to Vancouver for Horvat following an inconsistent first half. Outside of the Identity Line, the Islanders did not have a trio cross the 300-minute mark in 2021-22.

If the Islanders have what they hope they have on offense from their first two lines, Lane Lambert’s frequent line alterations should be focused on the team’s bottom six.
Corey Sipkin for the NY Post

Coach Lane Lambert’s tendency to juggle the lines became a defining feature of last season pretty early on.

That may continue to apply to the bottom six this year because the Islanders have more options than they know what to do with on the third line. If it does in the top six, though, there is a good chance something has gone wrong.

Want to catch a game? The Islanders schedule with links to buy tickets can be found here.

Based on training camp and last season, it looks somewhat obvious that Simon Holmstrom should make the roster over Ross Johnston. To the extent there is a competition for the 23rd spot, it is between those two.

Oliver Wahlstrom, Hudson Fasching and Julien Gauthier would need to be exposed to waivers to be sent down. At least for the moment, that is a nonstarter. Wahlstrom has a high ceiling and is coming off an injury. Fasching had a brilliant 2022-23 season, and has made a strong case for playing time in camp. Gauthier has put together a good few weeks that should earn him playing time.

Despite having a solid training camp, Simon Holmstrom’s waivers-exempt status might mean he starts the season in Bridgeport.
Corey Sipkin for the NY Post

Holmstrom is in the unlucky position of being waivers-exempt, so could be sent down without risk. Johnston would need to be exposed to waivers if sent to Bridgeport, but looks to have the hardest path to playing time and — with a $1.1 million salary — has a low risk of being picked up.

The operative question is less who has had the better camp — the answer to that would be Holmstrom — than what Lamoriello (with the input of the coaching staff) feels is most important.

Would he rather avoid losing anyone to waivers, have the strongest and most flexible 23-man roster or have as much cap room as possible to operate at the trade deadline?

In practice, those three options amount to keeping Johnston on the roster, keeping Holmstrom on the roster or keeping neither on the roster and carrying 22 men — which would put the Islanders on pace to have roughly $6.4 million of space accumulated by the deadline.

Ross Johnston’s $1.1 million salary likely doesn’t make him an appealing waiver-wire pickup to other teams.
Getty Images

If Holmstrom, who’s had a solid camp, is the victim here, he will be one of circumstance.

Adam Pelech-Noah Dobson

Alexander Romanov-Ryan Pulock

Sebastian Aho-Scott Mayfield

Simon Holmstrom-Bo Horvat-Mathew Barzal

Pierre Engvall-Brock Nelson-Kyle Palmieri

Anders Lee-Jean-Gabriel Pageau-Hudson Fasching

Matt Martin-Casey Cizikas-Cal Clutterbuck

Extras: Oliver Wahlstrom, Julien Gauthier, Samuel Bolduc

Three takeaways from the past week of practice and games:

  1. Pelech-Dobson and Romanov-Pulock appears to be the preference over Pelech-Pulock and Romanov-Dobson.
  1. Aho looks to have a slight edge over Bolduc for the sixth defense spot.
  1. The last few forward spots are so close that any combination would not be a surprise.
Sebastian Aho appears to be on track to snag the sixth defenseman spot out of training camp.
Getty Images

For now, I have Holmstrom on the top line because — outside of the Devils game in which Lee played there — that’s how the Islanders have looked since they started running NHL lines.

Other than Lee, he is also the only person who might play there that is a left-handed shot, which does not hurt.

Still, he’s the most volatile person here. Holmstrom could spend opening night on the top line, the third line, in the press box or in Bridgeport — and none of it would be shocking.

As for the third line, Gauthier and Fasching have turned in good camps, but Fasching’s contributions and consistency from last season put him ahead in my mind. Wahlstrom’s camp has stood out least among those competing for a lineup spot, though that is in part a byproduct of him coming off a serious knee injury. It would make sense to bring him along slowly.

It can’t be stressed enough, though, that the competition among Gauthier, Fasching, Wahlstrom and Holmstrom is extremely close.

Lambert would be well within reason to play any two of them, and the next week is their best chance to change minds and cement spots.