The finger-pointing has already begun after the Texas floods, with some Dems blaming Trump budget cuts aimed at the National Weather Service for the catastrophic death toll — yet even experts who are administration critics saying they weren’t a factor.
Foes of President Trump are claiming budget cuts by the White House hampered the federal weather agency’s ability to issue life-saving warnings in time.
But reviews by experts, the NWS’ own timeline of the steadily escalating warnings the federal agency issued before the flooding disaster hit — and the fact that the budget cuts aren’t supposed to take effect till Oct. 1 — have debunked the assertion.
At least 89 people have been officially confirmed to have died in the flash flooding in Texas Hill Country, which saw the Guadalupe River rise more than 26 feet in just 45 minutes after a freak summer rainstorm.
That grim figure includes dozens of children, many from Camp Mystic, a Christian girls’ summer camp near the banks of the river. Approximately 850 flood survivors have been rescued so far, but scores more remain unaccounted for.
Texas Democratic Rep. Julian Castro seized on the opportunity of the disaster to score political points at the GOP president’s expense, insisting “Trump’s cuts to the National Weather service should be investigated.”
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) echoed his colleague’s sentiment, demanding an investigation into whether “staffing shortages” at the agency resulted in a higher death toll in a letter to Acting Inspector General Roderick Anderson.
The White House shot back that any such claims that agency cuts initiated by the Department of Government Efficiency — which aren’t slated to take effect until Oct. 1 — were “disgusting.”
On the morning of July 3, NWS Austin/San Antonio held briefings with emergency management officials during which discussions were had about imminent flash flooding risks. That same morning, the National Water Center issued a Flood Hazard Outlook, flagging Kerrville and surrounding areas as potentially under threat for flash flooding.
The first flood watch was issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio at 1:18 p.m. CT on Thursday, July 3, to remain in effect in Kerr County through Friday morning.
At 6:10 p.m. that evening, the Weather Prediction Center also issued three Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions — a forecast in which experts believe flash flooding conditions are possible over the next six hours — warning of excessive rainfall and flash flood potential.
A few minutes later, at 6:22 p.m., the National Water Center warned of “considerable” flooding risks to the north and west of San Antonio, including Kerrville, which later became one of epicenters of the flooding.
At 11:41 p.m. CDT on Thursday, the first flash flood warning was issued for Bandera County, about 55 miles southeast of Kerr County.
On Friday, July 4, the day the floods began, NWS issued a flash flood warning at 1:14 a.m. with a “considerable” flag, a type of warning that denotes high-damage threats and automatically triggers Wireless Emergency Alerts on mobile devices, as well as through NOAA Weather Radios.
The agency noted that the first reports from the Kerr County Sheriffs Office of flooding at low water crossings, which were put out at 4:35 a.m. that day, had 201 minutes of lead time.
The flash flood warning was upgraded to a flash flood emergency in south-central Kerr County, including Hunt — where Camp Mystic is located — as early as 4:03 a.m. Friday.
“The National Weather Service is heartbroken by the tragic loss of life in Kerr County,” the agency said in a statement.
“Flash Flood Warnings were issued on the night of July 3 and in the early morning of July 4, giving preliminary lead times of more than three hours before warning criteria were met.”
Even as the warnings piled up, local officials said they had difficulty knowing whether to give the evacuation order.
“Why didn’t we evacuate? Well, evacuation is a delicate balance, because if you evacuate too late, you then risk putting buses, or cars, or vehicles or campers on roads, into low water areas, trying to get them out, which then can make it even more challenging,” Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice told CNN’s Pamela Brown on Monday.
“It’s very tough to make those calls, because what we also don’t want to do is cry wolf,” he said.
County officials had weighed installing a warning system along the banks of the Guadalupe River in 2017 but decided against it due to costs, the New York Times reported. The county had lost out on a $1 million grant at the time that was supposed to at least help fund the project.
Other experts came to the defense of the NWS and shut down those who blamed the administration’s impending budget cuts for making a bad situation worse.
“In this particular case, we have seen absolutely nothing to suggest that current staffing or budget issues within NOAA and the NWS played any role at all in this event,” Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza — a critic of the Trump weather agency cuts — wrote in a Substack post.
“Anyone using this event to claim that is being dishonest,” he added.
CBS Austin Meterologist Avery Tomasco wrote on X, “All I’ll say is this.
“The National Weather Service issued a flood watch for Kerr County more than 12 hours ahead of the catastrophic flood. A flash flood warning was issued for Hunt & Ingram 3 HOURS before the Guadalupe started to climb. They did their job and they did it well.”
As for claims running rampant online that staffing cuts impacted NWS’ ability to put out timely warnings, Tom Fahy, legislative director for the National Weather Service, told NBC News that wasn’t the case.
“The WFOs [weather forecasting offices] had adequate staffing and resources as they issued timely forecasts and warnings leading up to the storm,” he said.