Connecticut has defeated Alabama and Iowa State on a neutral court, beat Providence and Creighton, and is the only team to hand Marquette a loss since the middle of January. It has also lost to bottom-tier Big East opponents St. John’s and Seton Hall and has seven conference defeats, one of only two teams (Tennessee is the other) in the top 16 of the NET with that many setbacks in league play.
It was very good early and late with a poor stretch in between. The Huskies can beat anybody, but also lose to anyone. The ceiling is a national championship and the floor is a third straight empty March. As the fourth seed, it is the betting favorite to win this week’s Big East Tournament.
There may not be a more fascinating team to follow this month than Dan Hurley’s Huskies.
Hurley has elevated the program in five years, putting together top-notch recruiting classes and will reach his third straight NCAA Tournament when the pairings are announced next Sunday. But they have high expectations in the Nutmeg State. Strong regular seasons are not enough. Neither are fourth-place finishes in league play.
They do appear to be soaring at the right time, entering this week’s Big East Tournament riding a five-game winning streak after cooling off Villanova on Saturday night in Philadelphia. Then again, last year’s team seemed ready to explode as well, winning seven of eight games before a narrow Big East Tournament semifinal loss to Villanova was followed by an upset loss to 12th-seeded New Mexico State in the Dance.
Of late, March has not been kind to UConn, which has lost in consecutive years as the higher seed in the big tournament and has a 2-2 record in the conference tournament since returning to the Big East.
This group certainly has the potential to break through. It is deep and extremely talented, led by potential NBA first-round pick Jordan Hawkins. UConn is one of only two teams, along with Houston, ranked in the top 12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. It is 12-6 in Quad 1 and 2 games and its last three losses have come by a combined seven points. It is second nationally in rebounding margin led by the 1-2 center punch of Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan, and has more offensive firepower than recent UConn teams.
The Huskies are absolutely a Final Four contender and could wind up as high as a three-seed. They will almost certainly be sent to Albany for the first weekend, and could be at Madison Square Garden for the second weekend. The school’s best March since winning it all in 2014 is in play. But so is another disappointing finish, just like the last two years. That ugly stretch in January, when they lost six of eight games, did happen.
Under Hurley, UConn has yet to show it can handle the pressure of March. Few teams will be under the microscope like the Huskies and few coaches will face as much scrutiny as Hurley. It’s go-time in Storrs.
A few championship week hopes: A rubber meeting between No. 10 Gonzaga and No. 17 Saint Mary’s in the WCC title game. A second showdown between red-hot Hofstra and College of Charleston in the CAA. Fordham making a run in the Atlantic-10 Tournament and turning Barclays Center maroon. Oral Roberts and Max Abmas closing out a dominant season in the Summit League and returning to the tournament, where they reached the Sweet 16 two years ago. Iona and Rick Pitino navigating the MAAC, and St. John’s giving its fans a reason to smile, even for just a day, in a trying season. Chalk in mid- and low-major tournaments, because that leads to more upsets in the NCAA Tournament. This is one of the very best weeks of the sports calendar, right up there with the NCAA Tournament, start of the baseball postseason and NFL regular season. Everyone, except for the bottom four of the Ivy League, can dream of being part of the Madness.
By far the best league in the country, the Big 12 will feature four days of can’t-miss games at Kansas City’s T-Mobile Arena. At least 70 percent of the conference will reach the NCAA Tournament, and on-the-bubble Oklahoma State could make it 80 percent. All eight teams in the quarterfinals may wind up dancing. Even Oklahoma, which finished last in the league, owns double-digit wins over ranked opponents Alabama, Kansas State and TCU.
- Alabama, Kansas, Houston, UCLA
- Purdue, Texas, Baylor, Arizona
- Marquette, Gonzaga, Tennessee, UConn
- Kansas State, Virginia, Iowa State, Xavier
The Bruins should be the No. 1 seed in the West after knocking off eighth-ranked Arizona on Saturday night to run their win streak to 10. Their four losses — to Arizona, USC, Baylor and Illinois — have all come to projected tournament teams. They have elite seniors in Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jacquez Jr., the nation’s second-ranked defense by efficiency and are peaking at the right time. UCLA wound up winning the Pac-12 by four games — the largest margin since Stanford in 2004.
A week ago, after blowing a 19-point, second-half lead at home to Rutgers, the NCAA Tournament seemed like a long shot. But the Nittany Lions responded by winning at Northwestern and rallying from 16 points down to stun No. 21 Maryland, giving Penn State its fifth Quad 1 win. It now has won five of its last six games under impressive second-year coach Micah Shrewsberry, and can realistically dream of reaching the tournament for the first time in 12 years.
It has been an extended stretch of mediocrity for Ed Cooley’s 20th-ranked Friars. It’s not just the two home losses this week to No. 19 Xavier and shorthanded Seton Hall. Dating back to the start of February, they have lost five of nine games. Most concerning, Providence hasn’t shown to be capable of beating anyone of note on the road — it is 6-8 away from the Amica Mutual Pavilion — and all of its games the rest of the way will be in relatively unfamiliar arenas. This doesn’t feel like a team ready for a big March.
Barring an ACC Tournament title, North Carolina will become the first Associated Press No. 1 not to reach the NCAA Tournament since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. That falls squarely on the coach. With four returning starters from last year’s national runner-up, along with key transfer addition Pete Nance of Northwestern, the basement should’ve been the Sweet 16. Not the NIT. Not a seventh-place finish in the woeful ACC. Not a disastrous 1-9 record in Quad 1 games. This ultra-talented group that meshed so well late last year never came together. Davis has to answer for this massive disappointment that will be forever on his résumé no matter what happens the rest of his coaching career.