If you’ve been following our MLB plays this season, you know how much we love Cubs lefty Justin Steele, who’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball through the first month of the season.

And we don’t see that stopping Wednesday against the slumping Cardinals.

After a strong second half in 2022, Steele has opened this season with six quality starts in seven tries, never allowing more than two earned runs across 43¹/₃ innings.

As of Tuesday, he boasted the best ERA (1.45) in the NL and the lowest hard-hit rate (17.2 percent) among all MLB qualified starters.

(7:40 p.m. Eastern)

While other metrics are more skeptical of Steele’s early success, he’s been exceptional at inducing weak contact and leaning into his team’s stellar infield defense — two things that advanced stats usually discount.

That approach should bear fruit against St. Louis, which had posted middling offensive returns even before recent injuries to Nolan Arenado (neck) and Tyler O’Neill (back).

If the Cubs can get ahead of Jordan Montgomery’s low-to-mid 90s offerings, it should be enough to support Steele’s usual brilliance in an easy win for Wednesday’s hosts.

Conversely, Chicago’s lineup has been one of the best in baseball at generating contact and manufacturing runs along the base paths.

That should concern Cardinals starter Jordan Montgomery, who’s seen sharp declines in his whiff rate (24%) and chase rate (25.6%) while enduring his worst hard-hit rate (39.4%) in years.

If the Cubs can get ahead of Montgomery’s low-to-mid 90s offerings, it should be enough to support Steele’s usual brilliance in an easy win for Wednesday’s hosts.

Cubs +1.5 (-175, BetMGM)