Sometimes, the headlines write themselves.
After trading star pass rusher Micah Parsons, the Cowboys have arguably the NFL’s worst defense.
During his four years in Dallas, the team’s defensive metrics dropped significantly whenever Parsons came off the field. Occam’s razor suggested this would happen, and the theory has held true.
As ESPN NFL analyst Mina Kimes explained this week, the Dallas defense is making opposing quarterbacks look like Hall of Famers. They are allowing an opposing QBR of 80, which ranks dead last. For context, Josh Allen (75) and Lamar Jackson (78) have a lower QBR.
Parsons and his new team, the Packers, visit the Cowboys as 6.5-point road favorites with a total of 46.5 points.
Not only will Dallas be without injured star wideout CeeDee Lamb, Green Bay is coming off a disappointing loss, blowing a 10-0 lead late in the fourth quarter to the Browns. Any chance of the Packers looking past an inferior opponent seems less likely than if they entered this game with a 3-0 record.
Professional bettors have backed Dallas whenever the point spread reached seven points, so I have to respect that action. However, I have faith in Green Bay’s offense to torch this awful Dallas defense.
Packers QB Jordan Love should be up to the task. He has thrown five touchdown passes with only one interception. That was a costly one that allowed Cleveland to ignite the comeback. However, the Browns have one of the league’s top defenses and are allowing the fewest yards per game.
I have a 66-53-1 ATS record in this Post sports section and my next play is Love to throw at least two touchdown passes.
THE PLAY: Jordan Love 2+ touchdown passes (-136, FanDuel)
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.