It’s been a magical run for the Washington Commanders, going from 4-13 to an NFC Championship game appearance versus the divisional rival Eagles.
Jayden Daniels is the obvious story here as the gift that keeps on, with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft putting his team one win away from a Super Bowl berth.
Washington comes into Sunday’s matchup as a 6.5-point underdog, backed by its No. 8 ranking in FTN’s Aaron Schatz Weighted defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) statistic.
The Eagles rank third in that statistic.
The two teams split their regular-season matchups, as the Eagles defeated the Commanders, 24-16, on “Thursday Night Football” on Nov. 14, while Washington tallied an insane 36-33 comeback win Dec. 22.
Jalen Hurts started that game and was injured in the first quarter while leading, 7-0. The Eagles led by as much as 14 before Washington rallied for the impressive triumph.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | +6.5 (-120) | +220 | Over 47.5 (-110) |
| Eagles | -6.5 (-102) | -270 | Under 47.5 (-110) |
Health is a concern for Hurts, as he appeared to be dealing with a legitimate leg injury last week, although he has been practicing and will undoubtedly suit up in this game.
We’ve seen the Eagles’ offense struggle to throw the ball, but I’m not positive its been bad for a lack of ability or urgency to do so.
Against the Steelers, Hurts went for 290 passing yards and two touchdowns and afterwards joked that fans should not question their passing games skills but rather their willingness to let loose.
They might not even need to throw given the Commanders have the 26th-ranked run defense, according to DVOA.
In a game like this, where the Eagles could simply take the Bills’ approach and not throw the ball that much, we’re looking a tough matchup for Washington.
Philadelphia averaged 5.1 yards per rush attempt, the NFL fourth-best mark, while running it a league-high 36.1 times per game.
Washington could stop the run in this game, but there’s nothing that shows us it will be able to do so.
We’re going bird watching Sunday.
THE PLAY: Eagles -6.5 (-102, FanDuel)
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