As they do every year, the Dallas Cowboys will play on Thanksgiving Day in the NFL, hosting the Washington Commanders this time around.

You may not believe this, but the Cowboys are an astounding 1-10 against the spread on Thanksgiving since 2011. 

Here’s how the ‘Boys have fared since Dak Prescott took over under center.

So, based on these results, it’s pretty enticing to fade the Cowboys again.

But I’m not going to do that. 

Instead, I’m betting on a high-scoring Thanksgiving affair. 

While prime-time overs have been garbage this season, I’m ready to believe here. 

(4:30 p.m. ET. CBS/ABC)

Sam Howell might be good. 

Sure, he struggled against the Giants last week, but three-interception games happen sometimes, especially to young quarterbacks still building consistency.  

In the three games before last week’s debacle, Howell carved up Philadelphia, New England and Seattle for 1,034 yards with eight touchdowns and only two interceptions. 

Some of this is the Eric Bieniemy effect. The long-time Kansas City offensive coordinator is working his quarterback magic with Howell, and it’s coming together. 

The talent was always there – Washington has three elite wideouts in Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson – but nobody was ever on the same page in the Taylor Heinickie era. 

But the Commanders are 10th in EPA per Dropback over the past four weeks, dropping 31 points on the Eagles, 20 on the Patriots, 26 on the Seahawks and 19 on the Giants. 

It’ll be tough to score on the Cowboys, given Dallas is a top-five pass defense by DVOA and EPA per Dropback allowed. Even without Travon Diggs, Dallas has been stifling in the secondary.

That said, the Commanders’ offense is undervalued right now, and I want to bet on that. Three of the past four Washington games have flown over the closing total. 

Conversely, if Tommy DeVito’s Giants can drop 31 on Washington’s defense, Prescott’s Cowboys can do even more damage. 

Dak is the hottest signal-caller in the NFL. Over the past four weeks, Prescott’s amassed almost 1,300 passing yards with 13 touchdowns with only two interceptions. 

Since his bye week, Prescott leads all quarterbacks in EPA per Play and ranks third in Success Rate.

Behind his 14 big-time throws and only two turnover-worthy plays during the stretch, he’s become Pro Football Focus’s highest-graded quarterback this year. 

With the quarterback playing well, it’s easy to envision the offense playing well. Dallas leads all NFL teams in EPA per Play during the past month, and the ‘Boys rank third in Success Rate. 

Like Washington, three of Dallas’s last four games have finished Over the closing total. 

Prescott’s hardly struggled against this divisional rival. In 11 career games against the Commanders, Prescott completed 65% of his passes for over 2,500 yards with 19 touchdowns and only four interceptions. 

The only difference in this matchup? Washington no longer has Montez Sweat or Chase Young on the defensive line to hunt Prescott. The Commanders’ defense is shorthanded and underprepared to battle the NFL’s hottest passer.

Altogether, Howell’s Commanders and Prescott’s Cowboys should put on a show this Thanksgiving. It should be a flashy, high-flying, high-scoring affair, the perfect appetizer to Thanksgiving night’s primetime game between the 49ers and Seahawks. 

Grab the Over 48.5 (-110) available at Caesars while it’s still there, as the market tells me this number could creep up. Anything short of 50 is good. 

Over 48.5 (-110) at Caesars | Play to 49.5 (-110)